The Red Folder

Archied from September 2, 2024. 

Key stories for the week, brought to you by Lindsey Zhao and the Red Folder team.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

Publishing since January 2024. 

Domestic Stories

4 key domestic stories for the week:

1) Will the SAVE plan be Saved? Meera Menon

The Supreme Court's decision to keep the Biden administration's student debt relief plan on hold. The plan, which was designed to provide significant relief to millions of borrowers, is now caught in a legal limbo that highlights the contentious nature of government intervention in higher education financing.


What is the SAVE plan?

The SAVE plan was introduced as a more targeted alternative after the Supreme Court struck down Biden’s initial attempt to cancel up to $20,000 in student debt per borrower. This earlier plan, which was tied to the COVID-19 pandemic emergency, was deemed by the Court to exceed the administration’s authority without explicit congressional approval. In response, the SAVE plan sought to address some of the systemic issues in the student loan system by lowering monthly payments and accelerating loan forgiveness for borrowers with smaller debts. The Biden administration has emphasized that the SAVE plan is rooted in existing legislation, specifically a 1993 federal law that grants the Education Department the authority to adjust repayment plans based on income. Under the SAVE plan, borrowers’ monthly payments for undergraduate loans would be capped at 5% of their discretionary income, down from the previous cap of 10%. This adjustment was intended to make student loan repayment more manageable for low-income Americans and to prevent interest from piling over time.


The Student Debt Debate in America:

The ongoing legal battles over the SAVE plan are part of a broader debate about the role of government in addressing the student debt crisis in the United States. With over 43 million Americans holding a total of $1.6 trillion in federal student loan debt, the issue has become a focal point in national discussions about economic inequality and access to higher education. Critics of large-scale debt cancellation argue that it unfairly benefits higher-income borrowers and shifts the financial burden onto taxpayers. Meanwhile, proponents argue that student debt relief is essential for addressing the disproportionate impact of educational debt on low-income and minority communities. However, the SAVE plan has encountered legal challenges from Republican-led states, with claims that it represents an overreach of executive power. Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey argued that the plan would burden working Americans with $500 billion in someone else's Ivy League debt. Opponents argue that the plan's provisions, such as capping repayment at 5% of income and forgiving loans earlier for some borrowers, would require spending not authorized by Congress. The Supreme Court's decision to uphold the nationwide injunction leaves the future of the SAVE plan uncertain. While the administration sought to provide immediate relief to borrowers, the plan is now in limbo, pending further legal scrutiny by the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals. This delay has significant implications for the 8 million borrowers currently in forbearance under the plan, as they are temporarily relieved from making payments but unable to make progress toward loan forgiveness.


The Implications:

For the millions of borrowers affected by the plan, the Supreme Court’s ruling has introduced new complications. While they are temporarily spared from making payments, the time in forbearance will not count toward the required years of repayment needed for loan forgiveness under programs like Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) or Income-Driven Repayment (IDR) plans. This could mean that borrowers will have to wait longer to have their remaining debt forgiven, extending the financial strain that the SAVE plan was designed to alleviate. Moreover, the political stakes surrounding the SAVE plan are high. The outcome of the 2024 presidential election could determine the future of student debt relief in the United States. If a Democrat wins, the administration is likely to continue its legal fight to preserve the SAVE plan or introduce new measures to support borrowers. Conversely, if a Republican wins, the legal challenges against the plan could be left uncontested, potentially resulting in the plan being permanently blocked. Overall, Millions of borrowers remain in a state of uncertainty, waiting to see whether the relief promised by the SAVE plan will materialize or be swept away by further legal and political challenges. 


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2)  The Rise of Ghost Guns Evelyn Ding


The top 5 most watched YouTube videos on how to build a ghost gun have racked up over three million views. 


Defining Ghost Guns


The proliferation of ghost guns, defined as unfinished frames and receivers lacking a serial number, is a major concern for Americans. These guns are essentially do-it-yourself, homemade guns that are assembled after purchasing the building blocks. Many guns are sold online as D.I.Y. kits that cost as little as $345 for an AR-15 and could be assembled in under 15 minutes. 


The problem with ghost guns is that they are virtually untraceable, and easily accessible to criminals who would not qualify to legally purchase a gun. Ghost guns have become the go-to gun for violent criminals and dangerous extremists. It’s no surprise, as manufacturers and sellers are not required to mark their products with serial numbers and conduct background checks.


Attempts at Regulation


The Biden administration has tried to restrict and regulate ghost guns. Through a slew of executive orders, Biden convinced the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) to revise their definition of “firearms” to include ghost guns—ensuring that the guns have serialized numbers that can be traced, and that background checks are conducted. 


Unfortunately though, significant loopholes and court challenges have impeded the efficacy of the new regulations. There is a silver lining: the Supreme Court ruled last year on a 5-4 decision that the regulation could remain in place.


Rising Prevalence

Ghost guns are growing in popularity at an alarming rate. In fact, according to the Department of Justice, ghost gun use in U.S. crimes has risen more than 1,000% since 2017. In 2021, law enforcement agencies recorded 19,273 suspected ghost guns, up from 8,504 in 2020.


They are especially prevalent in states that have strict firearm laws—such as blue states. For example, in California, ghost guns accounted for 25 to 50 percent of firearms recovered at crime scenes from 2020 to 2021. Again, the majority of these gun owners were prohibited from legally purchasing firearms, which is why they turned to ghost guns.


Ghost Guns in Mass Shootings

When it comes to guns, oftentimes mass shootings will come to mind. However, ghost guns are predominantly used in day-to-day gun violence in communities of color across the country.


The majority of mass shootings actually resulted from legally purchased guns. According to the National Institute of Justice (in a comprehensive analysis of 1966-2019), 77% of mass shooters purchased at least some of the weapons used in the shootings legally. This is another facet of the enormous gun violence epidemic in the US, and shows the need for increased regulation of all guns—not just ghost guns.


The unfortunate reality is that the US is experiencing a rise in ghost guns being used for crimes and shootings, as ghost guns are now more accessible than legally purchased firearms (especially for criminals).


As gun violence rises, it will fall on government officials and law enforcements to come up with a solution. And they must not overlook ghost guns.


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3) The AI Cauldron is Bubbling Charlie Hui


If you invested a Honda Odyssey’s worth of Nvidia stock ten years ago, you will probably have enough money to buy a mansion in Ohio by now (or a small shack in California.)


The AI giant’s Cinderella run has become a marathon, as in the past year alone, the stock has surged 147%. With it has come its new evaluation as one of the top five highest-valued companies in the world, and an anticipation from the public and investors alike to be the future of the world’s economy. 


Despite this, there are problems looming along the horizon, and cracks that have already been revealed. On August 28th, Nvidia released their earnings report, where even when they beat Wall Street estimates, the stock still plummeted. 


This was because investors had already expected Nvidia to beat estimates and to outperform, yet as the stock rose further and further in the days leading up to the report, no one bothered to take the time to wonder if those lofty dreams would ever occur. 


It’s in scenarios like this when reality hits hard. 


When Nvidia's earnings report came out, the entire stock market dipped. When one company is able to have such vast influence across the entire market, it signals a dangerous message: that everything has now become connected to the AI industry, and its champion, Nvidia. Yet while the AI industry has managed to produce a wide quantity of products, some critics argue it’s yet to produce quality products. This should worry investors. 


When the internet first rose to prominence in 1998 and 1999, venture capitalists flooded the markets in search of any company that claimed to be on the forefront of this new technology to invest in. Coupled with low interest rates and a flurry of overwhelmingly lofty ideals, companies like Pets.com kept rising. Until they didn’t.  On March 10th, 2000, the .com bubble popped, and with it companies crashed and burned, where in one year the Nasdaq fell by nearly 80%.


Now, history seems to be repeating itself. As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is said to be in favor of finally lowering interest rates, companies across the country are increasingly relying on AI as part of their future technology arsenal. Investors across the world are flocking to Nvidia, expecting the company to be an alchemist that can turn lead into gold. 


It just takes one motion to pop a bubble, but it takes trillions of dollars to rebuild an economy. 


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4) In 2024, It’s Not Just The Election That’s Heating Up Sahana Srikanth



Across the entire United States, August has resulted in significantly above-average temperatures.  June of 2024 was the twelfth month in a row crying temperatures of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. 3 in 4 people say climate change is hurting people in the U.S., and two-thirds of the country wants to see more action. 


The people's goals and society's outcomes are clearly misaligned regarding climate change. We know the world is overheating. We know people care. In 2024, what we don’t know is if anything is going to change. That’s why this election matters.


Rising temperatures are not new, and institutions often resort to ignoring climate impacts when making decisions. Despite decades of promise from our global leaders that climate change is on a list of priorities, the numbers don’t reflect that story.


To no surprise, climate change has had massive effects across the US. A national report discovered that weather extremes have had an extensive impact on every region in the U.S.A., and the White House themselves have released a region-by-region analysis of climate impacts in specific areas. For example, the Northeast has seen a 60% increase in rainfall since the 1950s, the largest rise in the nation. Unfortunately, regional climate issues like extreme heat and flooding immensely affect low-income communities in particular, making climate change an issue of equity as well. Energy demands have increased the number of power outages across the Northeast, with some cases affecting over 1,000 residents. In the Midwest, temperatures, drought, and precipitation are deteriorating ecosystems and destroying infrastructure. The Midwest has even suffered severe economic implications from climate change, with $49 billion in losses due to flooding. Climate change makes it harder for U.S. residents to live functional and healthy lives. So, what’s on the ballot for the climate in the next few years?


The US is the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the world, so as a nation, we have a responsibility to take necessary steps in the right direction. The current contenders for president are Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump. Historically, the Democratic party, specifically President Biden’s administration, has advocated for a greater emphasis on climate policy. President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement in 2021 after former President Donald Trump withdrew in 2017. His administration actually achieved the most progress on climate of any previous administration, especially with The Inflation Reduction Act. 



The IRA Program allowed the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) to select 38 businesses, universities, and nonprofit organizations to receive $160 million in grants to report and reduce climate pollution linked to construction materials and products. It amended the Clean Air Act to protect against carbon pollution, and now the EPA is advancing standards that cut pollution from power plants, passenger vehicles, oil wells, and other modes of transportation. The Biden administration has put our 2030 climate goals within reach.


On the Republican side, there is a stark difference in prioritizing climate issues.  Former President Trump withdrew from the Paris Climate Accord, the international agreement to cap greenhouse gas emissions, and he aspired to open up large expanses of US territory to grow oil and gas investments. He has publicly questioned the validity of climate change along with the science behind its emergence. As of December 2023, his campaign has noted that President Trump will exit the “horrendously unfair Paris Climate Accords and oppose all of the radical left’s Green New Deal policies.” Further campaign information suggests he plans to crack down on subsidies for renewable energy and prevent DoE and EPA regulations surrounding increased renewable sources of electricity at home.


Kamala Harris has yet to outline her policies on climate, but she has indicated her stance as a for-climate candidate, even painting the issues of climate as a patriotic endeavor. It’s likely her policies will align largely with Joe Biden’s work in the past to improve access to renewables and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.


Still, it's unclear how much climate will matter as a deciding factor in this year's election. Foreign policy and economic concerns have evolved to be top priorities for voters this year, so there is a likely chance both parties’ stances on these factors displace their perspective on climate. On the other hand, with voters being an affected demographic and a group who has expressed care for the problem, a plan to tackle rising temperatures could still benefit candidates, citizens, and the climate alike.


After all, if climate attention increases, then maybe temperatures won’t.


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