The Red Folder

Last updated November 18, 2024.

Key stories for the week, brought to you by Lindsey Zhao and the Red Folder team.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

Publishing since January 2024.

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Domestic Stories

4 key domestic stories for the week.

1) DOGE is No Longer Just a Meme Lindsey Zhao

In exchange for billionaire Elon Musk’s campaign support, former president turned president-elect Donald Trump promised to give him a role in government. That role has now materialized-- in the form of a department named after a meme.

‘Doge’ refers to the dog meme that inspired the creation of Dogecoin, the first meme coin created in 2013 to mock the volatility of the cryptocurrency market. Now, it’s apparently also inspired the creation of a government agency, the Department of Government Efficiency.

In addition to tapping Elon Musk to lead the department, Trump also appointed 39-year-old entrepreneur and former primary challenger Vivek Ramaswamy to lead it alongside Mr. Musk.

It has been a longtime goal of both Donald Trump and Elon Musk to slash government regulations, decrease federal expenditures, and restructure what they see as ‘oppressive’ federal agencies. DOGE is now both Musk’s and Ramaswamy’s opportunity to do that. The stated goal of DOGE is to regulate government spending and to make recommendations to the government as to how best to downsize the budget and agency responsibilities.

While it is not clear yet whether this entity will actually exist within the federal government or be an independent agency that advises it, the creation of a new official federal agency would require Congressional approval. So, despite the somewhat misleading name, it’s more likely this ‘department’ would operate as a presidential advisory commission or task force.

If there likely wouldn’t be many regulatory powers given to this entity, why are so many people worried about it? The answer is because of the threat it could pose to thousands of federal workers and several federal agencies whose work is indispensable to America. On the campaign trail, Elon Musk has promised he’ll find “$2 trillion that could be eliminated from the federal government’s $6.75 trillion budget.” A very difficult task, even for a lifelong businessman. Vivek Ramaswamy, for his part, has proposed laying off 75% of the federal workforce and immediately eliminating the Department of Education, the FBI, and the IRS (Internal Revenue Service) by executive order.

Officially, they will work with the White House Office of Budget and Management in assembling the president’s annual budget request to Congress. Their position will be one of ‘entrepreneurship’ and ‘drastic change’ within government.

Given Ramaswamy and Musk’s close relationship with Donald Trump and his long standing support of cutting the US government’s budget, many of their proposals have a relatively high probability of being seriously considered by Trump. He would have the power to implement many of these changes, especially considering that his party now holds a trifecta in the federal government (control of the Presidency, House, and Senate). He also has a majority conservative Supreme Court that has already ruled favorably for Trump in several cases, and all of these combined factors give this new department huge opportunities for change.

For now, a lack of clear details and powers given to this new government commission leave many onlookers unsure of what to truly expect. However, as Trump settles back into the Oval Office, you can be sure that DOGE will make itself at home, too.

Read more here:

3) A Glance at America’s New Cabinet Andy Choy

After coaching an American team starring the likes of Lloyd Austin and Anthony Binken, President Joe Biden is exiting the top division of global politics. It is now President-elect Donald Trump’s task to assemble a new lineup representing America over the next four years. As the preliminary draft comes to its conclusion, Trump’s new squad requires quite the examination, especially for the players filling two key positions on the government field.

Secretary of State

Team America’s presumptive new Secretary of State is Marco Rubio, an experienced legislator who has served as one of Florida's two U.S. Senators since 2011. Rubio challenged Trump during the 2016 presidential election and endorsed Trump’s candidacy two months after losing the Republican Party primary election in his home state of Florida. A child of Cuban immigrants —the first Latino Secretary of State if appointed—, Rubio has a record of antisocialism and focus on Latin American foreign policy. Some analysts think if Rubio enters office, he will direct more attention towards deterring Chinese, Russian, and Iranian influence in Latin America. Rubio may particularly pursue decisive diplomatic action against the Belt and Road Initiative, which is pouring investments into the region in favor of China.

In addition, Rubio may also pressure Mexico to strengthen border security in order to advance Trump’s anti-mass immigration border policy. Two years ago, Rubio branded former Mexican President Andres Manuel López Obrador a socialist tyranny apologist after Obrador attended a Cuban-hosted left-wing leaders’ meeting rather than the Summit of the Americas. This accusation soured relations between the Republican Party and Mexico, although official America–Mexico diplomacy remained amicable. Despite Obrador leaving office in September this year, Rubio will likely remain hostile to new president Claudia Sheinbaum’s government if it continues Obrador’s border and international relations approaches.

Meanwhile, Rubio criticizes South American socialist leaders such as Colombian President Gustavo Petro for his guerilla history and Chilean President Gabriel Boric for his stance on the Israel-Palestine War. Petro fought for the Bolivarianist 19th of April Movement from the 1970s to the 1980s, while Boric opposes Israeli military attacks against Palestine, which Rubio called chaos-fueling and terrorist-influenced respectively. However, Petro and Boric will likely confront much less pressure than Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Rubio attempted to overthrow Maduro’s regime in 2019, supporting democratic opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s leadership claim. While whether Trump will support another adventure of such magnitude over the next four years is unclear, Rubio’s hardline antisocialism means he will almost certainly increase hostilities against Venezuela.

Outside of Latin America, Rubio is supportive of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), which he considers crucial to national defense. This stands contrary to Trump’s unfavorable view of NATO, which he believes is overreliant on America and wasting financial resources. Rubio’s nomination thus indicates Trump wishes to concede his opposition to NATO in exchange for Rubio’s hawkish policies against China, Russia, Iran, and other anti-America countries.

Attorney General

U.S. Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida is the presumptive nominee for leading the Department of Justice. A long-time Trumpist, Gaetz supports President-elect Trump’s mandate for protecting gun rights and decreasing business bureaucracy among other policies. Believing climate change is not human-caused, Gaetz authored a 2017 legislation attempting to dissolve the Environmental Protection Agency because its regulations harmed small businesses. Gaetz is expected to continue supporting Trump’s policies using his power as Attorney General.

Besides backing Trump’s policies, Gaetz voices support for multiple conspiracy theories, including the Great Replacement. First theorized by France’s Renaud Camus in 2011, the Great Replacement claims nonwhite immigrants are demographically replacing white Europeans and Americans as part of a deliberate plot. Gaetz’s support for such baseless theories makes him incredibly controversial, and some Americans question his fitness for office.

Gaetz’s nomination is also controversial because of child sexual trafficking and statutory rape investigations against him. In November this year, the Ethics Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives prepared to publish a potentially damning report about Gaetz’s misconduct. If publicized, the report could ruin Gaetz’s cabinet appointment, since Americans would not want a sexual criminal leading the justice system.

In an unexpected rules tactic, Gaetz resigned from office before investigators could complete the report. Since Gaetz is no longer a member of the House, the Ethics Committee cannot continue its inquiry and is procedurally encouraged to not publish its report. Nevertheless, numerous U.S. Senators —tasked with approving Gaetz— and criminal attorneys are pressuring the committee to publish regardless. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson advised against publication, leaving the ethics report hanging in the balance.

Whether Rubio, Gaetz, and the remainder of Trump’s new team can score any political points for America remains to be seen.

Read more here:

4) Paging Dr. Beat! Emergency (At the Border) Rohan Dash

Of the many campaign promises made by now President-elect Donald Trump, one of the most significant was mass deportations. Trump, who has ran a campaign since 2015 that has made immigration issues a center of America’s biggest problems to address, now has the ability to implement his policies. But what exactly do they entail?

In very simple terms, Donald Trump hates undocumented immigrants. As someone who's constantly pushed an America First policy, it's no surprise why. That's why he's willing to literally repeal centuries-old clauses and laws to ensure that his vision gets put in place.

When Trump was President in his first term between 2016 and 2020, he spent billions of dollars (6.5 million dollars for every mile!) to build a wall to keep many from crossing the border between Mexico and the United States. Unfortunately for Trump, this border wall was not as successful as expected - it cost more than originally planned for, was never completed, and didn't exactly deter migrants from attempting to cross the border undocumented. However, Trump pushed forward, and his policy was among the harshest in the modern day, and it included separating children from their family, and even reports of inhumane treatment from ICE and other border patrol agencies. .

Today, however, Trump is a different person altogether. And it's not for the better. For starters, Trump has continued to pledge to build a border wall, because as per him, "A country without borders isn't a country". Furthermore, he will completely reverse the majority of Biden's policies and get to work on his grand scheme: a mass deportation.

The President-elect has essentially promised, “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.” Not only has he re-appointed the man known as the “Border Czar” to the head of ICE, but he is willing to, at literally all costs, go across the entire country and remove every single undocumented migrant. Now, he’s willing to even use the military to do the job. He’s agreed to ramp up the number of officers to do the job, and is calling on local municipalities to prepare their resources.

Those are not the only plans. He wants to revamp the immigration system by ending birthright citizenship. During his first term, he implemented a “Muslim Ban,” banning travelers from certain Muslim countries, and he will do that again.

It's important to note the difference in the government during Trump's first term and his second term. His biggest opponent was opposition from not only other branches of the government, but even within the executive branch. That isn't the case anymore. For example, the SCOTUS is made up of a strong majority of conservative judges, which means any order he puts will likely be impossible for Democrats to attempt to argue as unconstitutional or attempt taking it to court. Both chambers of Congress are now in a majority as well, making it significantly easier to pass a bill or piece of legislation. And with the recent Department of Government Efficiency and a plan to replace those working in federal jobs with MAGA loyalists, Trump's life as the President could not have been easier.

Immigration was, is, and will be a cornerstone of Trump's legacy as a leader in American politics. Over thirty million people in the country could be affected from the day he takes office. He may prioritize America first, but at what cost?

Read more here:

International Stories

4 key international stories for the week.

1) Transatlantic Tensions: The EU Response to Trump Christina Yang

On Nov. 7, 2024, European Union leaders gathered in Budapest, Hungary in the looming shadow of Trump’s recent presidential victory to discuss many key issues exacerbated by his win. Across the EU, his victory has been met with mixed feelings, with those on the right celebrating and toasting to champagne, while the rest ask themselves what might happen next… All in all, the recent EU Budapest meeting concluded that Trump’s reelection will open a door to unwavering uncertainty for Europe with challenges ahead on the topics of security, trade and the economy.

Trump’s reelection has already reopened up many divisions within the EU, especially related to various security issues. To start off, many countries in the EU have already had a rocky relationship with Trump on the topic of security dating back to his first term. Evidently since 2016, Trump has expressed that he would not defend European allies unless they meet NATO targets on defense spending, and he has stood by this with his new America First plan. During the recent Budapest summit, some powers such as Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who publicly took victory laps after Trump’s win, stated that: “Europe should take more responsibility for its peace and security. To be blunt, we cannot wait for the Americans to protect us.” French President Emmanuel Macron also notably took a similar stance by stating that this is the push Europe finally needs to build up cooperation on defense and not become a weak “herbivore” surrounded by “carnivores.”

Other leaders within the EU also support the plan for Europe to build up more independence, but not for the sake of forging closer ties to Trump like Orban advocated for. Instead, many leaders believe that since Trump’s previous term brought so much volatility and unpredictability to the U.S. and Europe relationship, it is ever so important for Europe to maintain unity, strength, and a degree of political independence this time around. For example, Luxembourg’s Luc Friedan urged that the EU should seek mutual dialogue, but not give up its principles when facing Trump. Regardless of the widespread divisions within the EU related to Trump’s win, it is clear that all European leaders support the consensus to strengthen their strategic political autonomy to build up resistance to external conflicts

Another major area of discussion during the Budapest summit was the U.S. and Ukraine. After Trump’s win, he has notably stated that he would make a peace plan to end the war between Ukraine and Russia. However, many EU countries have become increasingly fearful of this political agenda because it could possibly pressure Ukrainian leadership into an unfavorable peace deal that would benefit Russia but leave Ukraine in a vulnerable position once again. Moreover, the current U.S. political landscape has exacerbated these issues, as seen by the Biden administration’s caution in relation to Ukraine and Russia, which has translated into a slower delivery of weapons and aid. Thus, many EU leaders and Ukrainians themselves are fearful that Trump’s agenda could translate into ending all aid to Ukraine. However, exacerbating divisions again, Hungary’s Orban has taken a differing stance by stating that the EU must accommodate Trump’s plan for Ukraine at all costs. But, it is clear that despite Trump’s perceived flowery rhetoric, the conflict cannot end overnight, and his agenda is a huge gamble into the unknown. Thus, the general view across the EU (with the exception of Orban) is that no matter what course America takes, they must remain firmly on Ukraine’s side to contain Putin’s expansionism.

The prospect of U.S. tariffs and trade also weighs heavily on the minds of Europeans. Trump has made his position on tariffs extremely clear to the EU as he seeks to raise them to a significant extent. One of the major driving factors of this decision is that Trump believes that the U.S. has much lower tariff rates than the EU, such as the EU’s 10% tariff on passenger cars compared to the U.S.’s 2.5% rate. To add to this, the U.S. trade deficit with the EU has also risen to 230 billion dollars. Thus, Trump believes these imbalances stem from foreign trade practices that unfairly block U.S. exports, but most economists argue that it is simply due to macro-economic factors such as national spending differences between countries. To address all of this, Trump entertains imposing a 20% across-the-board tariff on all 3 trillion dollars worth of U.S. imports, from cars to pharmaceuticals to machinery, and various other products from the EU.

The fact of the matter is, Europe has become increasingly reliant on exports to the U.S., making it vulnerable to the shockwaves of Trump’s new trade policy. Former European commission point person Garcia Bercero recommends that Europe should not try to match the U.S. duty for duty with the tariff game as it would result in lost exports to the U.S. as well as increased costs for European consumers and companies. Thus, the overall economic consensus at the EU summit is that Europe needs to prepare to strike back, but keep its own economic interests in mind, which starts with a plan for strategic autonomy to reduce foreign reliance.

In a time of unpredictability and unprecedented divisions, EU leaders need to project unity to find a common strategy to cope with Trump’s new political agenda for European security, Ukraine, and trade. While the future relations between the U.S. and Europe still need time to grow, it is clear that a stronger Europe means a stronger America.

Read more here:

3) Myanmar Paying the Costs of Conscription Roshan Shivnani

For Myanmar’s junta, power has always been fragile. The military, which seized power in a February 2021 coup, has struggled to maintain control over the country due to the widespread civil disobedience movement and armed resistance groups. In response, Myanmar’s military junta has implemented mandatory conscription in a bid to strengthen its armed forces. It’s essentially a draft of the nation’s citizens who are then trained to fight with the junta. But despite the idea intending to strengthen the nation, it has largely had a negative impact on both those conscripted along with the rest of the country.

But to understand the burden conscription puts on soldiers, it’s imperative to understand the conditions for those conscripted. According to the UN, nearly half the population was living below the national poverty line of 1,590 kyats (about 50p) a day by the end of 2023, up from 24.8% in 2017. That effectively means most citizens are living day-to-day and require more financial opportunity. Unfortunately, conscription only does the opposite with The Guardian explaining that it has only worsened economic hardship. That’s in large part because the people conscripted are the working age citizens who make the money their family depends on. As the article goes on to explain, the conscripted men are men aged 18-35, and it is believed 25,000 have been taken away to training camps alone. 5,000 of these men have been deployed to the frontlines. That means that for families who are barely staying financially afloat, they might lose the few working age family members allowing their family to survive.

As a result of these policies, many have resorted to outright leaving the country. In 2024, when the military junta introduced forced conscription it prompted a mass exodus, particularly to Thailand. But specific conditions and laws make this decision even more incentivizing. Myanmar's conscription specifically noted it would mandate at least two years of military service for all men aged 18 to 35 and women aged 18 to 27. Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun, the spokesperson for the military government, said in a statement that about a quarter of the country's 56 million population were eligible for military service under the law. Because of the sheer number of people eligible along with the timeframe they would be conscripted in, it’s no surprise why outright leaving the country is becoming a more common option amongst the country's working age citizens.

Read more here:

4) The Strife of South African Miners Boyana Nikolova

Each year in South Africa, tens of thousands of young men will take up the only gig available to them: illegal mining. They will trek into long abandoned gold mines, searching for any leftover precious minerals at all that they can excavate, and then carefully navigate outwards with any goods found. Every work day, they will risk their lives, unsure of whether the mines they’re exploring will finally reach their day’s end and collapse. However, due to the illegal nature of their job, the South African government has decided to absolve itself of the duty of sending help when lives are actually on the line. Still, at what point does one’s job make it okay for them to lose their life?

Weeks ago, when South African police encountered a major mining shaft, they came face to face with this question. Not only had the entrance to the mine completely collapsed, but it had left roughly 3 to 4 thousand illegal miners stranded inside, left without food and water for days. The authorities immediately alerted the government and soon, a verdict was reached: they would send food, water, and personnel to lead the rescue mission, but only to a certain extent. By limiting the supplies sent, the government planned to force as many illegal miners to resurface, where they could then be arrested by the expectant police forces.

The result of this brutal policy has been a standoff between thousands of stranded miners and a government eager to crack down on illegal mining. One miner was reported dead earlier this week with hundreds of others also weakened by the lack of food and water. In contrast, many others have heeded the government’s warning and submitted themselves to arrest, given they would be rescued beforehand. Roughly 1,000 arrests have already taken place, making this one of the greatest single-period crackdowns on illegal mining in South African history.

Still, although a victory for the government, their policy is raising countless ethical concerns beyond South Africa. Pressuring individuals to choose between their illegal job and their lives is anything but just and considering that it has resulted in the death of at least one miner thus far, it’s a lethal policy. Furthermore, delaying an emergency response for thousands of individuals because of mining isn’t correct either. It would be similar to 911 hanging up on a caller, because they have been made aware they are the perpetrator of a crime, past or present.

Naturally, South Africa still has a major problem to attend to. Annually, illegal mining will cost it close to 7 million USD and tens of thousands of individuals will involve themselves in the industry. Some workers from nearby countries, like Mozambique, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe, will travel to South Africa for the sole reason of pursuing illegal mining. For the millions lost in sales and the uncontrolled uptick in associated illegal immigration, the government definitely needs a change in current policy. However, risking the lives of its own people is far from the solution.

Read more here:

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The Red Folder is brought to you by Lindsey Zhao and the News Brief Team:

Paul Robinson
Boyana Nikolova
Sasha Morel
Roshan Shivnani
Rowan Seipp
Anthony Babu
Daniel Song
Rohan Dash
Charlie Hui
Justin Palazzolo
Ruhaan Sood
Evelyn Ding
Robert Zhang
Sahana Srikanth
Meera Menon
Andy Choy
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