The Red Folder

Archived from October 21, 2024. 

Key stories for the week, brought to you by Lindsey Zhao and the Red Folder team.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

Publishing since January 2024. 

International Stories

4 key international stories for the week:

1) Cuba’s Fall to the Dark Side Boyana Nikolova


Cuba has had its fair share of dark moments in history, but last Friday, the Caribbean nation had one of its worst yet as the entire country was plunged into darkness. The main power plant, Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric, unexpectedly failed and in minutes, it left a cascading effect on the rest of the power grid. According to the Cuban Energy and Mining Ministry later that day, “a total disconnection” of the electricity system had occurred with no clear date by which it could be repaired.


This crisis doesn’t come without precedent, however. A series of failed government policies and more extreme US sanctions have contributed to the issue for decades. Some of the most notable changes come from the past 3 years alone. In January 2021, Cuba oversaw a major overhaul of its currency, the peso, which resulted in it rapidly devaluating. Inflation surged, economic growth plummeted, and the power grid took major blows in the process. Still, this new set of laws alone wouldn’t have been enough to put the country in crisis mode. A tougher US sanction regime came and compounded these problems.


Although the US has had a trade embargo against Cuba since the 60s, recent economic pressure from former president Donald Trump complicated matters. In one of the hardest sanctions to bear, Cuba was even added to the US’s list of “state sponsors of terrorism” among many other punitive measures. Across the board, foreign investment into the country dropped, growth continued falling, and already poor conditions soured. In consequence, inflation, fuel shortages, and national frustration were supercharged. Energy infrastructure faced even more pressure, but with its historically fragile nature, it was also the first to fall. What were once rolling blackouts and mere technical errors had culminated in a nationwide power plant failure.


Now, Cuba’s left picking up the pieces of its own demise. Around 10 million of its citizens have been left without electricity, hundreds of schools have been shut down, and nonessential businesses have forcefully stopped working, at least for the time being. In similar fashion, government offices and other public buildings have also taken precautions like limiting work hours or not operating at all. Needless to say, with a collapsed electricity grid, it’s way more than just the people that suffer. The economy takes the other major hit.


The blackout has brought about a temporary “economic paralysis.” For at least a few days, economic activity will be next to nothing as businesses, recreation centers, schools, and some government facilities shut down. On its own, this won’t cause fatal damage to the economy. The aftermath, however, may. Recovery will be a gradual process and given the climate until now - inflation, fuel and food shortages, import dependency, crumbling infrastructure, and more, - returning to Cuba’s previous “normal” might not be enough to restore order. Investment will need to be redirected to sectors like electricity lacking in it and updated technology will be crucial in preventing future technical errors like the one that has caused the current shutdown.


Going forward, Cuba will need to make great amends to its public sector, especially in the sector of energy. Thankfully, there is always light at the end of the tunnel.


Read more here: 

2) In Bulgaria, A Tale of Corruption and Authoritarianism Robert Zhang


On October 27, Bulgarians will return to the polls to elect a new parliament, the seventh time snap parliamentary elections have been held since 2021. The most recent elections, held this past June, did not see any party win a majority, and numerous attempts to form coalitions between reformist and establishment parties all fell short of securing a majority. While polls show that all individual parties are by no means near a majority, the far-right, pro-Russia Vazrazhdane (Bulgarian for “revival”) party is surging ahead in the polls. Meanwhile, press freedom is declining rapidly, and the country has failed to tackle organized crime. To understand how we got here, it’s important to understand the events that have unfolded in Bulgaria over the last several years.


Bulgaria’s current descent into authoritarianism began around 2009, with the term of former prime minister Boyko Borissov of the conservative GERB party, who ruled for nine of twelve years between 2009 and 2021. His government frequently intimidated journalists and repressed media freedom, and roughly eighty percent of print media and news coverage was controlled directly or indirectly by politician and oligarch Delyan Peevski. His rule also set back the creation of protections for journalists, such as dedicated reporting systems for threatened journalists. Most concerningly, as local and central authorities provide a substantial amount of funds for advertising for media outlets, they now often use them as leverage to minimize scrutiny of their activities.


Moreover, organized crime blossomed during Borissov’s term. He was suspected of having links to a front organization known as the SIC, which provided cover for members of the country’s influential mafia with roots in the Communist era. Members of the mafia have infiltrated every level of government, including the judicial system, eroding what little rule of law is left.


Borissov grew increasingly unpopular as a result of his policies. Eventually, in 2020, the country erupted into nationwide protests against corruption that lasted over 280 days. However, while he accordingly did not return to office following Bulgaria’s next elections in 2021, no parties were able to form a majority coalition. Since then, a series of caretaker prime ministers have ruled the country.


But while only one of those prime ministers has been from Borissov’s GERB party, the country’s political turmoil and constant electoral limbo has left even reformist leaders from achieving much change. In recent years, the country has seen an increase in the use of SLAPPs, or strategic lawsuits against public participation, commonly filed against journalists. These are usually defamation lawsuits with the intent of silencing media scrutiny, and are particularly effective due to the overwhelming financial burden they impose. They have even been weaponized by government officials: in April, Interior Minister Kalin Stoyanov filed a defamation lawsuit against two investigative journalists who reported on a property deal he allegedly made with another corrupt politician.


Now, as Bulgarians grow increasingly exasperated with reformist leaders’ inability to form a government and achieve progress, the far-right Vazrazhdane party is pulling ahead in the polls, with one poll putting them at 15.5% of the vote and predicting a second-place finish for them. This is nothing short of terrifying, as the party is ardently pro-Russia, anti-U.S., anti-NATO, and anti-LGBTQ.  They have even attempted to pass legislation to punish any organization or individual that receives funding from abroad, modeled off a Russian law that was also recently copied by the Caucasus country of Georgia. Additionally, in what is likely an electoral publicity stunt, they introduced and actually succeeded in passing a bill banning so-called “LGBTQ propaganda and promotion” in public schools, further repressing an already marginalized demographic in a country where public opinion is largely hostile towards LGBTQ people and neither same-sex unions nor marriage is permitted. Should they finally succeed following the upcoming elections, it will be yet another blow to democracy and press freedom in the country.


While Bulgaria remains the poorest country in the European Union, its leaders are more preoccupied with politics than the people. And although Vazrazhdane may translate to “revival,” they will only bring the country closer to the jaws of death.


Read more here:


3) Hamas is Missing a Leader Rowan Seipp

In a moment that poetically sums up the entire course of the war, an Israeli drone captured the final moments of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Shortly before the drone extinguished the terrorist organization's leader, he threw a stick at the million-dollar death machine. The IDF released Sinwar’s poetic but ultimately fruitless endeavor to evade his demise on the internet. Israel hopes that by killing the leader of Hamas, they will dismantle the organization's structure and end the war sooner. In other words, Israel is abiding by the tried-and-tested concept of cutting off the head of the snake, believing the body will die with it. But will it work, and what effect will Sinwar’s death have on the region?

The primary question that has arisen because of Sinwar’s death is who will succeed him. Three candidates are seriously considered for the role: Mohamoud Al-Zahar, Mohamoud Sinwar, and Khalil al-Hayya. Al-Zahar is a founder and key member of Hamas; in the early 2000s, he served on the Palestinian Legislative Council. The knock against him is that he is widely considered considerably more hawkish than previous Hamas leaders. Sinwar—if you can’t already figure out—is the brother of Yahya Sinwar. He is incredibly similar to his brother, and if chosen, would likely kill chances for ceasefire talks. The final option is al-Hayya, the United States’s preferred candidate. Currently residing in Doha, al-Hayya has spearheaded negotiations with Israel and the U.S. With those three wrestling for power, Hamas is now caught at a precarious crossroads.

How does the death of Sinwar affect the war at large? In actuality, Sinwar’s killing throws Israel’s attempts to secure hostages into uncertainty. The problem lies in the fact that Sinwar was Israel's primary point of contact for hostage negotiations. Without him, Israel no longer has an option for negotiations. However, the really interesting fact about Sinwar’s death is that he was killed above ground. It is widely known that Hamas has a complex network of tunnels throughout Gaza. The fact that the organization's leader was killed while traveling overland indicates that Hamas has realized its tunnels are no longer as secure as they once thought.

Sinwar’s death is not a breakthrough moment for Israel or even a turning point in the conflict. It is, however, a moment that displays a significant weakness within Hamas. While Israel is no closer to winning the war than they were a month ago, Hamas is now in chaos. Depending on who wins the race for leadership within Hamas, the course of the war may be permanently altered.

Read more here:

   4) Election Meddling in Moldova Rowan Seipp

With only 3 million people, most Americans don’t think about Moldova. The Eastern European nation is often forgotten among the heavy-hitting democracies in the area. However, while most Americans (and this author) forget about Moldova, Russian government officials don’t. In the nation's most recent election, a fairly routine vote became shrouded in allegations of election fraud. But what happened, and why does the Moldovan election matter so much to the Russians?

Currently, Maia Sandu is the President of Moldova. She has been a trailblazer since her election in 2020. She is an admirable female icon and deserves significant praise—not just for her ability to govern the nation, but for how she's handled Russia. Sandu became one of the only Eastern European leaders to stand up to Putin and his expansion. She sought to join the EU and to incorporate pro-European principles more fully. However, in the most recent preliminary polls, she is unlikely to reach the 50% threshold needed for an outright win. Most international watchdogs have become suspicious of these results. Notably, this election also includes a pro-EU referendum on the ballot. Immediately after the first polls, suspicions of vote tampering began to emerge. Police have accused Ilan Shor, an oil tycoon, of paying off 120,000 voters to vote “no” on the resolution. Law enforcement in Moldova also claims to have uncovered a bizarre operation where hundreds of Moldovans were taken into custody in Russia and trained in rioting and civil unrest. These are serious accusations and raise a valuable question about why Russia cares so much about the Moldovan election.

Russia does not care about who runs Moldova; rather, it is concerned about its borders-- specifically, with Ukraine. Unless you have lived under a rock for the past two years, you know that Russia is at war with Ukraine. Russia has essentially calculated that if Moldova goes pro-EU, the West will share an even wider border with Ukraine. Another issue is the province of Transnistria. This breakaway, pro-Soviet province has long been problematic for the Moldovans. Transnistria considers itself the last remnant of the bygone Soviet era, making it a Russian ally to the detriment of Moldova. However, if Moldova begins the process of joining the EU, then Transnistria will become virtually useless. Russia needs Transnistria to maintain its encirclement of Ukraine. Essentially, this election threatens Russia’s advantage in the war and could place the West firmly back on top.

On the surface, Russia’s meddling in Moldova’s election seems strange. However, scratch the surface, and it becomes clear how necessary Moldova is to Russia’s attempts at world domination.

Read more here:


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