The Red Folder

Archived from November 4, 2024.

Key stories for the week, brought to you by Lindsey Zhao and the Red Folder team.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

Publishing since January 2024.

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International Stories

4 key international stories for the week:

1) North Korea is Now Fighting Ukraine, Too Lindsey Zhao

While the war in Ukraine continues to rage, having claimed over 12,000 civilian lives, North Korea is now adding fuel to the fire. Over the course of Russia’s war of aggression, North Korea has shipped millions of rounds of ammunition, rockets, and other weapons to the war front to support one of their only allies. In exchange, Russia has shipped food and raw materials for weapons manufacturing to North Korea, in evasion of international sanctions. North Korea also has a long history of sending laborers like lumberjacks over the border to work for Russia, providing a stream of foreign currency that enriches the military regime and keeps them in power.

But while North Korea may have constrained its military cooperation with Russia to only weapons shipments in the past, Kim Jong Un’s perspective appears to have changed. This week, North Korea sent over 10,000 troops to fight against Ukraine for Russia, with at least 8,000 of those troops in the heavy fighting region of Kursk. Russian military troops have been training North Koreans in basic infantry operations that indicate Russian leadership is likely to use these troops on the frontlines of combat.

So, what does Kim Jong Un want for this increased commitment to Russia’s military success? First, he likely wants help with his military arsenal. South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun said after a meeting at the Pentagon this week that North Korea is likely to ask for more technological help in everything from intercontinental ballistic missiles to nuclear missile submarines. As North Korea has made huge strides in nuclear weapons, sending an ICBM 4350 miles into the atmosphere just this week, many of its technological breakthroughs have been credited to Russian tech.

Second, he likely wants his troops to gain combat experience from Ukraine. While North Korea has been cast as a sophisticated military giant, their troops have not fought an actual war since the Korean War armistice seventy years ago. Fighting against Ukraine would give their military valuable hands-on knowledge about the advancement in military technologies and applications since then, honing their skills in the case of an eventual resparking of the Korean war.

Beyond raw manpower, Russia is likely to also benefit from fresh troops. Not only does this allow Vladimir Putin to at least temporarily delay another wave of an unpopular military draft, but at least some of the troops North Korea has sent to the frontlines are from their infamous Storm Troops. A special operations force trained in Pyongyang, they are significantly better-trained than the average soldier sent to Ukraine and may be tasked with different jobs, like psychological warfare. However, language and cultural barriers between Russian and North Korean troops may hinder short term success.

China, however, appears to be growing concerned about growing relations between North Korea and Russia. Beijing has long used its economic and political ties to North Korea to deter aggression, mostly because it doesn’t serve China’s interests to see further destabilization of East Asia (at least, destabilization that isn’t on their terms.) Russian investment into North Korea’s nuclear and military arsenal risks doing exactly that, and North Korean encroachment in Europe risks having the continent more involved in East Asian affairs, which China also doesn’t prefer. American officials have reached out to Chinese diplomats in an attempt to get them to communicate with Kim Jong Un on the matter.

Read more here:

2) LDP Stands for Losing Disastrously Party Daniel Song

While Japan does not traditionally celebrate Halloween, its ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) got a spooky surprise a couple days prior. On October 27th, 2024, Japan held elections for the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of its national legislature, the Diet. For the ruling center-right LDP, it was an utter disaster. The LDP won 191 out of 465 seats, losing 56 seats from its previous result in 2021. Its parliamentary coalition partner, the centrist Buddhist party Komeito, also lost seats, going from 32 to 24. The main opposition party in Japan is the centrist to center-left Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP,) which gained 50 seats to hold 148 total. The LDP’s loss is the culmination of years of structural discontent with the party, exacerbated by recent campaign finance scandals.

Combining the LDP and Komeito, the coalition is only at 215 seats, far short of the 233 majority required to form a government. This dramatic fall from grace is a humiliating defeat for the LDP, which has ruled Japan uninterrupted since 1955, except for two periods in 1993 to 1994 and 2009 to 2012. Political instability in Japan has significant regional and global implications, especially with North Korea and China more aggressive and ascendant than ever. Case in point, a recent Foreign Affairs piece called Japan “America’s Best Friend in Asia.” While all of the major political parties in Japan are committed to the US-Japan alliance and are unlikely to pivot from the the LDP’s policies of increased defense spending, closer relations with South Korea, and support for Ukraine, a lack of political unity could undermine Japan’s role as a bedrock of stability in Asia (quite ironic considering Japan’s earthquakes-prone nature) as the Japanese government is forced to focus on domestic concerns.

Moving forward, Ishiba has vowed to continue as Prime Minister, pledging to each out to opposition parties to form a government. However, there is a unique nuance in Japan’s political system that could complicate Ishiba’s efforts. While 233 seats guarantees control of the Diet, reaching 244 seats, or a stable majority, empowers the ruling coalition to chair all 17 committees and secure the same number of committee members as the opposition. Going further, 261 seats is an absolute stable majority, where the ruling coalition chair all standing committees and have a majority of members on all committees. The LDP and Komeito previously held comfortably over the 261 mark, but that looks increasingly out of reach now. Even worse, Ishiba’s cabinet only has an approval rating of 32%.

There are a couple of combinations for the LDP to retain power. First, the LDP could partner with Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party), a right-wing party championing regional autonomy for the Kansai region of Japan. Ishin no Kai aligns well with the LDP on being hawkish on defense, but could conflict with the more dovish and peace-orientated Komeito. Worse, even adding Ishin no Kai to the LDP-Komeito coalition would bring a simple majority of 252 seats, falling short of the absolute stable majority. Second, another possible option for the LDP is the Democratic Party for the People (DPP). The DPP is a center-right party that has a similar economic platform to the LDP. But again, a LDP-Komeito-DPP coalition would only have 242 seats, still short of an absolutely stable majority. For the coalition to have an absolutely stable majority, there would need to be an LDP-Komeito-DPP-Ishin no Kai coalition, controlling 280 seats.

Japan is the country of the rising sun, yet only time will tell if the sun has set on the LDP.

Read more here:

3) Germany’s Coalition Budget Breakdown Justin Palazzolo

Germany’s coalition government has been on its last legs for a while. However, the nation’s new (potential) economic plan could be the final straw.

In late 2021, Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD,) Greens party, and Free Democrats formed a national coalition government that focused on pursuing technological growth in the economy and pushing through environmental legislation in parliament.

Almost immediately, the governing coalitions hit challenges. Growing support from populist parties such as the right-wing AFD and on the left caused the center FDP and SDP to lose significant support. Furthermore, an energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine created hesitancy surrounding the Greens' clean energy policies which many cited as an economic strain on the nation. Ultimately, leading to the party getting ejected from two regional parliaments after poor performances in regional elections.

In totality, the coalition combined polls around 30% in support nationally, a far cry from the day when majority centrist coalitions could easily govern the future policy path of Germany. Furthermore, internally the parties are recognizing this, with the FDP now questioning its presence in the coalition considering its limited political gain and the policy differences in the hawkish and business-friendly FDP and the environmentalist Greens and the SPD which heavily favors budget spending.

However, all of these simmering tensions are now backseat to a new controversy. Christian Lindner, the leader of the FDP, put forth a policy proposal to drop taxes, cut welfare payments, and drop some of the Greens’ climate regulations in favor of the baseline EU regulations. In this move, the FDP has put itself at odds with the pro-welfare SPD and the Greens on the issue of the budget.

With the German economy shrinking last year, Lindner has indicated he will leave the coalition if these proposals are not integrated within the budget. That's crucial, considering these issues are non-negotiables for both the Greens and the SPD.

With rising conservative opposition to the coalition, and with the parties struggling in their respective elections, there is an understanding, especially from the FDP, that ideological compromise no longer garners the political support to find meaningful impact in a coalition government.

If the FDP does leave, the two remaining parties could form a minority government. However, they would be severely strained in their ability to break parliamentary gridlock and pass policy. A more likely option is for the coalition to break up entirely between the parties.

Diverting from decades of a centrist stranglehold on politics, 2024 may be the year the German parliament goes up for grabs.