The Red Folder

Archived from June 10, 2024.

Key stories for the week, brought to you by Lindsey Zhao and the Red Folder team.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

Publishing since January 2024.

Domestic Stories

4 key domestic stories for the week:

1) Will Biden’s New Immigration Policy Ruin Support from Latino Voters? Sasha Morel

President Biden’s recent executive action, which significantly restricts asylum access for migrants at the border, underscores the complexity of immigration for his campaign, especially among Latino voters who have traditionally supported his party on this issue.

Voters who previously criticized the administration for maintaining a pandemic-related border closure, are frustrated by the high number of migrant arrivals in recent years. Additionally, many blame Biden for not delivering on promises of immigration reform for long-term undocumented immigrants, despite Republican opposition in Congress.

In a closely contested presidential race, any loss of Latino support in a predominantly Latino battleground state, such as Arizona or New Mexico could be critical.

Historically, immigration has not been the top voting issue for Latinos. However, many Latino voters have used immigration as a measure of a candidate’s stance on Latino issues, explained Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, a Latino polling and research company leaning towards Democrats. “That has changed somewhat in the last few years. The Democrats no longer have the advantage they used to,” he said. Perceptions have shifted with Democrats seen as breaking promises on legal pathways for immigrants, while Republicans are perceived as not fully committing to their tough immigration rhetoric.

Recent polls show an increase in Latino support for GOP calls for stricter border control, with some believing that Republicans and presumptive presidential nominee Donald Trump could better manage the border. An NBC News survey revealed that U.S. voters ranked immigration and border control just behind inflation and cost of living as the nation’s most pressing issue. Less than 30% approved of Biden’s handling of immigration and the border. Republicans were far more likely (42%) than Democrats (4%) and independents (15%) to prioritize immigration and border issues.

An April poll by Axios-Ipsos and Noticias Telemundo showed a rise in hard-line immigration positions among Latinos. Support for building a border wall or fence increased from 30% to 42% among Latinos between December 2021 and March 2024. However, Latinos still generally favor more lenient policies than white Americans, according to a Pew Research Center poll.

The same Axios-Ipsos and Noticias Telemundo poll indicated that 64% of adult Latinos supported giving the president authority to close U.S. borders if too many immigrants try to enter. Meanwhile, 59% support allowing refugees fleeing violence in Latin America to seek asylum in the U.S.

Biden’s recent executive order is the latest in his administration’s immigration efforts. Biden has criticized Trump for blocking a bipartisan bill that included border enforcement funding, additional visas and green cards, and tightened asylum laws. After Republicans blocked the bill twice, Biden implemented asylum controls through executive action.

Liberal pollsters warned against overstating changes in Latino voters’ views on immigration. It’s a mistake to assume Latino voters’ dissatisfaction with border issues means they support harsh crackdowns, she said. Her organization’s polling indicates strong Latino support for providing asylum to new migrants.

“Immigration tended to favor Democrats, and still right now, Latino voters see more alignment on immigration with Democrats than with Republicans,” Martinez said. “But it used to be a very high contrast, and that contrast is not as high as it used to be.”

Immigration has long been a contentious issue for Democrats. Former President Barack Obama was dubbed “deporter in chief” for the high number of deportations during his first term, yet faced Republican criticism for not fulfilling a promise to pass immigration reform.

Republicans have consistently blocked attempts at comprehensive immigration reform, which typically includes pathways to legal status for undocumented immigrants alongside increased border security.

In Arizona, Republicans proposed a ballot measure to allow local and state authorities to arrest and deport suspected illegal immigrants, a power currently reserved for the federal government. Critics call these new proposals “SB1070 2.0,” referring to the controversial 2010 “Show me your papers” law that allowed police to check immigration status based on reasonable suspicion. The backlash to SB1070 is often credited with turning Arizona from a solidly red state to a more competitive purple one.

Most undocumented immigrants in the Southwest arrived during a mass migration period beginning in the 1980s, mainly from Mexico, often evading Border Patrol. This contrasts with today’s migrants, who typically seek asylum and temporary legal status.

Petra Falcon, founder of Promise Arizona, noted the resentment among long-term undocumented immigrants towards newer arrivals. Many feel neglected by the federal government despite their long tenure and contributions.

Luis Reyes, an Arizona State University student from a mixed-status family, acknowledged some competition between long-term undocumented immigrants and recent asylum seekers. Reyes, a Biden supporter, argued that many people lack accurate information about Biden’s immigration actions.

“Maybe Biden hasn’t done too much in the eyes of people for the immigrant community,” Reyes said. “Biden did end up deporting more people than Trump. I’d definitely say he’s cracked down on the border as much as he’s able to.”

Carlos Odio suggested that while Trump’s promise of mass deportations might overreach, Biden has an opportunity to show commitment to border order while addressing the needs of long-term undocumented immigrants. This approach could resonate strongly with even the most undecided Latino voters.

Advocates believe there’s still time for Biden’s campaign to sway wavering voters by highlighting Trump’s extreme immigration promises.

Read more here

4) Vermont is making Big Oil Pay for Climate Change Lindsey Zhao

Climate change has changed lives around the world. And for all the talk about investing in lesser-developed countries, states, and regions to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change, little money has manifested. Now, Vermont has become a groundbreaker.

Studies have repeatedly shown that Vermont has warmed over 2 degrees Celsius and precipitation increased by 21%, all within the last century. Floods and droughts are becoming increasingly common, and it's making life harder for the state’s citizens.

In July of 2023, historic levels of flooding caused some areas of the state to see 9 inches of rain within 24 hours, with hundreds of people needing rescuing from dangerous situations. State officials estimated that July’s historic flooding will have cost taxpayers north of $1 billion in property damages.

This past week, Vermont’s Governor, Phil Scott (Republican), allowed the Climate Superfund Act to come into law without officially signing it (in Vermont, if a bill is sent to the governor’s desk and it is not signed or rejected within 5 days, it officially becomes law). Now, they have officially become the first state to force major oil and gas companies to pay billions of dollars in climate change damage. Politicians, activists, and citizens have all celebrated it as a major move to force companies that knew their products were dangerous to pay their fair share in ‘cleaning up the mess’.

The legislation applies to companies that have produced more than 1 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent between 200-2019. Under this bill, these companies must evaluate their climate emissions from 1995-2024, and pay damages accordingly. In order to do so, they’ve recommended companies use Carbon Majors, a database that collects emissions data for over 122 of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell. They’ll use the money collected from this superfund program to enhance climate-resistant infrastructure, mitigate climate change related health impacts, and more, run by Vermont’s Agency of Natural Resources.

This is similar to the EPA’s less controversial Superfund program, which any good APES student knows forces companies that create hazardous waste while doing business to pay for cleanup.

Surprisingly, despite many high-level national Republicans denouncing climate change as a hoax, most Republicans nationwide, including in Vermont, recognize climate change as at least somewhat of a problem. Many Republicans also support taking action against oil and gas companies’ reckless use of the environment, which is what caused Vermont’s recent bill to be passed with an overwhelming majority in the state congress. Only 3 state senators voted against the bill.

While proponents of the Superfund Act say that it’ll provide billions of dollars in much needed funds to combat the long-lasting impacts of climate change wrought by ‘Big Oil’, others are more wary. One of the three senators that cast a vote against the bill, Russ Ingalls (R), said that it would force the state into a protracted legal battle against major oil and gas companies that have the legal and financial resources to advance their own interests indefinitely. He also argues that it would cause property taxes to rise as the state becomes stuck in court.

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (D) has also introduced a similar bill at the national level, but it’s unlikely to actually pass. Similar bills have also been in circulation in Maryland, New York, and Massachusetts.

Water shortages in Texas. Wildfires in California and New York. Unending heat waves for weeks in Arizona. Floods in Vermont. Climate change is only becoming more disastrous, and we can only hope more states follow Vermont’s example, and tell Big Oil to pay up.