The Red Folder

Archived from July 8, 2024. 

Key stories for the week, brought to you by Lindsey Zhao and the Red Folder team.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

Publishing since January 2024. 

Domestic Stories

4 key domestic stories for the week:

1) The Democratic Party’s Grand Old Problem Charlie Hui

75%. 


No, that is not Biden’s approval rating, it’s the odds bettors on Polymarket have placed on him dropping out of the presidential race. The betting site saw a rapid spike when reports surfaced of Biden talking to a close aid about dropping out. Though the White House was quick to refute the rumor, ten million dollars have already been put into Polymarket, and only more will flow. The chips have been cast, the dice have been rolled, so let’s fiat a world where Biden takes the gamble and drops out. What will be the new odds for the Republican party?


It all depends on what cards the Democrats are holding. If Kamala Harris wins the nomination, the GOP will have a field day. Harris has a lower approval rating than Biden, with her past as a harsh prosecutor and her present state of ignoring the border crisis antagonizing the minority populations that Biden had hoped to win when he put Harris as his running mate. Not only does she have a smaller base to work with, the Republicans keep all their previous ammunition. As Vice President, all of Biden’s failures can also be attributed to her, making attack ads and a cohesive campaign against Harris an easy call for the GOP.


But what if the Democratic Party’s cards aren’t Kamala Harris? This is where the presidential poker game gets interesting.


First up is Pete Buttigieg, young, white, and with a solid political track record, the ideal candidate that America has sought throughout most of its lifetime. But in a time of culture wars and fear-mongering, it is evident what the far right of the Gop’s line of attack would be: he’s just like the train that crashed into East Palestine- Not Straight. This fact alone poses a considerable challenge in America, as 25% of the population supports businesses having the right to refuse service to an individual based on their sexual orientation. The GOP functions best not by highlighting Trump’s good side, but by tearing the opposition to smithereens. In such a politically heated climate, the Democratic Party most likely does not have the confidence to put Mayor Pete on the table. 


Meanwhile, Californian Governor Gavin Newsom plummets into different pitfalls. Newsom has the most recognition across the country as the governor of the most populated state in the country, but that isn’t entirely a good thing. Fox News has had plenty of experience putting the blame of California’s rising prices and crime on Newsom, and his falling approval rating makes him a candidate Democrats see as potentially too extreme.


If both ends of the spectrum don’t work, then what about the middle? Finding the blandest candidates that have a moderate track record, have no skeletons in their closet, and above all, are candidates that aren’t named Trump. In short, the same mindset Democrats had when nominating Biden 4 years ago.


Thus,  Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, JB Pritzker, and Andy Beshear are all possible cards the Democrats can hold. Their stories are the same, just in different colored suits. All governors of moderate states from left-leaning Illinois, to red-leaning Kentucky. They have all passed bipartisan legislation, won reelection, or usurped the chair from an opposing party, yet what really attracts Democrats is their history, or lack of one. 


Republicans aren’t the only ones who thrive off attacking the opponent instead of glorifying their own candidate, Democrats have used the same strategy. In modern-day politics, it is no longer about your candidate’s triumphs, but about your opponent’s failures. The Democrats now have the opportunity for a fresh start, a comforting, or at least non-antagonistic new face to present to America. This forces the GOP to rebuild their political ammunition, while Democrats keep their Anti-Trump rhetoric fully stocked. 


This strategy won Democrats the game that is America’s election back in 2020, but Americans have seen this song and dance before. The showdown might now be a more balanced coin toss, but it will always be better odds than the current status quo. Now it’s all about returning to reality, realizing that not one of these new cards can be played, if Democrats can’t convince Biden to fold. 


Read more here:

2) Supreme Court Ruling: Too Much Power in the President? Roshan Shivnani


Since its foundation, America has strived to be a democracy, avoiding the king-like power seen in Britain. Almost 250 years later, it seems we may be approaching the excessive power in our president which we sought to avoid. In the most recent Supreme Court ruling, they voted to expand presidential immunity. Effectively, the president receives unprecedented power. This has left many wondering what that power is and what its implications will be.


The court’s conservative majority ruled that any “official acts” a president takes — even beyond the office’s “core constitutional functions” — would enjoy “presumptive immunity” from prosecution. This notion essentially means that any action taken by the former or current president could be vaguely interpreted as a “core constitutional function” and as a result, it would be near impossible for them to be prosecuted. Namely, this means the present charges against President Trump will become much harder to press given the broad definition and interpretation of “Official acts”.


The response of the American population hasn’t exactly been great. For many, the vast increase in presidential power seems eerily similar to the start of illiberal democracies or autocracies around the world where the “Leader”—like Victor Orban in Hungary, Recep Erdogan in Turkey, or Xi Jinping in China—controls the courts, schools, and media. Unsurprisingly, Americans disproportionately disagree with expanding presidential immunity with 62% of respondents opposed granting “former presidents” immunity, compared with 20% who supported that idea. 


But the implications of the Supreme Court ruling reach far outside of America itself. Already, the US Congress gives presidents wide latitude to take actions overseas, and the country refuses to recognize the authority of bodies like the International Criminal Court (ICC). That’s why Samuel Moyn, a professor of law and history at Yale University stated “The decision erodes the few guardrails left to govern US foreign policy.” This concern stems from the fact that in the United States, the president also serves as the head of the military and this new layer of presidential immunity can very easily be applied to the “core constitutional functions” a president would take regarding our military and foreign policy.


Read more here:

3)  Hurricane Beryl Barrels The Southern U.S. AmandaLesly Miranda

As the hurricane became the second named storm of the season, on July 8th, Hurricane Beryl made landfall in southern Texas where it brought torrential rains, devastating winds, a significant storm surge, and countless problems for coastal cities. Not to mention, there is already a climbing death toll, with two confirmed deaths sparking from the hurricane and more deaths expected to be announced as the reconstruction process begins.


Hurricane Beryl's impact on southern Texas has been severe, with the region experiencing extensive flooding, wind damage, and power outages. Coastal towns, including Corpus Christi and Brownsville, faced the brunt of the storm surge, which inundated homes and businesses, leading to significant property damage. The heavy rainfall, compounded by the already saturated ground from previous storms, resulted in widespread flooding, submerging roads and isolating communities. Many residents were forced to evacuate, seeking refuge in emergency shelters as rescue operations were carried out to assist those trapped by rising waters.


The agricultural sector in southern Texas has been hit particularly hard, with extensive crop losses and damage to farming infrastructure. Fields of cotton, corn, and other vital crops were destroyed by the relentless winds and flooding, posing a significant economic setback for local farmers. Livestock losses have also been reported, further exacerbating the economic toll on the region. Additionally, power outages left thousands without electricity for days, complicating recovery efforts and impacting essential services. As southern Texas begins to recover from Hurricane Beryl, the focus will be on rebuilding and providing support to the affected communities to restore normalcy and mitigate future risks.


The impact of Hurricane Beryl has extended beyond immediate physical damage, severely affecting the socio-economic fabric of southern Texas. Many small businesses, already struggling from previous economic challenges, now face an uncertain future with their premises heavily damaged or completely destroyed. The tourism industry, a vital part of the local economy, has also suffered as popular coastal destinations now lie in ruins, deterring visitors and further straining local finances. Schools and hospitals have reported significant damage, disrupting education and healthcare services just as communities need them most.


In response to the devastation, a coordinated effort involving federal, state, and local agencies has been mobilized to aid in recovery. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has set up numerous disaster recovery centers to assist residents with applications for financial assistance and to provide immediate relief supplies. Local government and community organizations are working tirelessly to distribute food, water, and medical aid to those in need. Volunteers from across the country have converged on southern Texas, helping to clear debris and support rebuilding efforts. The spirit of resilience and community solidarity is evident as the region comes together to overcome the challenges posed by Hurricane Beryl, highlighting the importance of preparedness and community support in the face of natural disasters.


Read More Here:

    4) Power To The People or Power To Yourself? Ruhaan Sood


Born and raised in South Florida, I have seen it all. When anyone asks, what’s the most “floridian” thing ever? I could tell you: Pub Subs, Endless Hurricanes, Occasional Alligators in your backyard, or maybe a governor hellbent on the privatization of rights? Republican Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, won by a 59.4% majority in 2022. His approval rating has been slowly rising, so much so that DeSantis thought it was a good idea to run for president this election year. Spoiler Alert: he got demolished. However, beyond Ron’s ego for ambition, the self-absorbance is slowly starting to make its mark on the Floridian population, especially as Florida is marketed as one of the top states for settlement and retirement in 2024. In this year so far, over 760,000 citizens have made Florida their new home. That gives DeSantis 3 ⁄ 4 of a million to take their power.


So far, it sounds like I’m making DeSantis the supervillain. Just without the physical size. It’s not my fault he has many similarities to them. How about Ron DeSantis canceling the ability to sleep? He did that. In March of 2024, DeSantis passed a bill to effectively make it a crime for the homeless to sleep in a public space. “Our public spaces are worth fighting for” was his only remark. The homeless? Their dignity was the only thing worth fighting for, which they just lost. This anti-homelessness legislation is just a small step of a long marathon of other right-cutting bills. 


Just a month later, DeSantis signed another piece of legislation which allowed for Florida counties to not require water breaks or cooling measures for outdoor workers. Might I remind you that Florida is one of the hottest states, if not in the country? Ladies and Gentlemen, Ron DeSantis has banned treatment for a condition that kills 215 in state every year. Heatstroke in Florida prevents some from even putting a toe outside. When an industry in construction, landscaping, preservation, and the general outdoors amounts to billions of USD every year, employers won’t be forced to provide basic necessities for their workers.


What’s it worth to push legislation that reduces the population to vote for you? Just more in your pocket in the end.


P.S: Still get Pub Subs, they are so fire.


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