The Red Folder

Archived from July 29, 2024. 

Key stories for the week, brought to you by Lindsey Zhao and the Red Folder team.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

Publishing since January 2024. 

Domestic Stories

4 key domestic stories for the week:


1) A Beginners Guide to Arizona Politics Sasha Morel

Arizona's Role as a Battleground State

Arizona's significance in the presidential race is underscored by its pivotal role in 2020. The upcoming state primaries are crucial as they set the stage for highly competitive races that could influence the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, the House of Representatives, and both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature.

Broader Political Context

The intense focus on Arizona's primaries reflects the state's transition from a solidly Republican stronghold to a competitive battleground. This evolution mirrors demographic changes, shifting political attitudes, and the increasing importance of Arizona's diverse electorate. As such, the results of these primaries will be closely watched by political analysts, campaign strategists, and voters across the nation.

In summary, the significance of Tuesday's state primaries in Arizona cannot be overstated. They will not only shape the immediate political future of Arizona but also have profound implications for the balance of power in Washington, D.C., and potentially influence the broader trajectory of American politics in the years to come.

The Republican Primary to Succeed Sen. Kyrsten Sinema

Background on Kyrsten Sinema

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, originally elected as a Democrat in 2018, switched to an independent in 2022 after frequent clashes with her party. Facing strong opposition, particularly from U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, she decided not to seek reelection.

The Republican Contenders

Former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is running against Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and neuroscientist Elizabeth Reye. Lake. Lake has secured the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, is leading in fundraising, and has focused her efforts on attacking Gallego and President Joe Biden.

House of Representatives Races

The 1st Congressional District

Rep. David Schweikert is the frontrunner in his Republican primary, facing businessman Robert Backie and former FBI agent Kim George. The Democratic primary includes ex-state party chair Andrei Cherny, ex-local news anchor Marlene Galán-Woods, and several others. Schweikert leads in fundraising, while Cherny has garnered significant endorsements and has raised the most among Democrats.

The 6th Congressional District

Rep. Juan Ciscomani faces a primary challenge from Republican Kathleen Winn. If he wins, he will likely face Democrat Kirsten Engel, who narrowly lost to him in 2022.

Other Key Congressional Races

The 2nd Congressional District

First-term Republican Rep. Eli Crane is challenged by former Yavapai County Board of Supervisors member Jack Smith. Crane and fellow Arizona Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, who voted to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy, face different challenges: Crane has a primary opponent, while Biggs is unopposed.

The Battle for the State Legislature

Republicans hold razor-thin majorities in both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature. Democrats aim to capture the state Senate for the first time since 1992 and the state House for the first time since 1966.

Significance of the Upcoming Primaries

The outcomes of these primaries will be critical in determining the political landscape of Arizona and could significantly impact the national political balance. Arizona has emerged as a key battleground state, pivotal in shaping control of both state and federal legislative bodies.

Implications for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives

The race to replace Sen. Kyrsten Sinema could shift the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. With Sen. Sinema's departure, the Republican and Democratic parties are intensely focused on capturing this crucial seat. Kari Lake's candidacy, backed by former President Donald Trump, signifies the high stakes involved. Additionally, the House races in Arizona, particularly in districts that President Biden narrowly carried in 2020, highlight the competitive nature of these elections. Victories in these districts could either strengthen the Democrats' control or bolster the Republican ranks in the House of Representatives.

Local Political Landscape

At the state level, the razor-thin Republican majorities in both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature are under threat. Democrats are pushing to capture the state Senate for the first time since 1992 and the state House for the first time since 1966. Success in these efforts would dramatically alter the legislative dynamics in Arizona, potentially leading to significant policy shifts on issues ranging from education to healthcare to immigration.

National Repercussions

Arizona's primaries are not just about local governance; they are indicative of broader national trends. The state's electoral outcomes often serve as a bellwether for the country's political climate. For example, a Republican surge in Arizona could signal a broader national shift towards the GOP, while Democratic gains could suggest sustained or growing support for the Biden administration and its policies.

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2)  Robert F Kennedy: November’s Spoiler Candidate? Justin Palazzolo


Spoiler alert: Robert F Kennedy Jr will probably not be our next president.


According to 246 different polls, RFK Jr. is polling at a mere 8.7%, a downward spiral from September 2023 when he was polling at an impressive 16.5%. This should be no surprise since RFK is less known for his policy and more for his incredibly gravelly voice. Furthermore, his publicity focuses on his infamous statement that a “dead brain worm” lived within his head, not exactly the image that attracts voters. 


Despite his clear inability to obtain the presidency, he may have the power to determine who fills the position come election day.


The dialogue around RFK Jr is less focused on his candidacy itself and far more focused on his ability to influence the support of the other two candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Kennedy’s identity as a member of the Kennedy family and his Democratic background have caused Democrats to fear that Kennedy could pull away voters and sink Harris in key swing states. However, RFK’s more conservative stances such as vaccine skepticism, tighter immigration policies, and an aim to end the war in Ukraine have caused the Trump campaign to release a statement on Truth Social attacking RFK despite Trump once calling RFK a “very smart man”. 


The best way we can analyze which political campaign will suffer a negative ‘spoiler effect’ (when 3rd party candidates draw away votes from aligned candidates) is by seeing what campaign positions RFK aligns with relative to other political parties. On immigration both a majority of RFK and Trump supporters (64% and 75% respectively) agreed with the claim that the “U.S did not have control over its borders” and both expressed a majority disapproval percentage of the Biden administration’s handling of immigration. Trump supporters and RFK supporters also share a significant portion (roughly 40%) of the people who believe the economy has worsened under Biden. Furthermore, they both share the conservative disapproval of Biden’s supporting stance toward Ukraine and a supporting stance towards Israel regarding foreign affairs. 


So on paper, RFK could take voters away from Trump on election night. However, despite RFK’s stances, Democrats could also be at risk. On the issue of abortion, RFK supporters strongly lean towards the Democratic position with only 13% of Kennedy supporters viewing abortion as morally wrong. While general economic disapproval is not a partisan issue and a majority of Americans (54%) view reducing illegal immigration as an “important policy issue”, including roughly a third of Democrats, abortion is a far more partisan issue, with strong conservative opposition to abortion in contrast to the view of moderate Democrats and the rest of the party. Thus, the stance of RFK supporters on abortion strongly dispels the notion that RFK supporters would default to Trump if RFK dropped out. 


Overall, multiple polling findings have been inconclusive. However, one poll from June finds that RFK Jr. would swing Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in favor of Biden (now Kamala Harris) according to MainStreet Research. Trump’s actions have also substantiated the polling, with a leaked call containing Trump implying to RFK that he wanted him to join his campaign. The weekend after his near-assassination, Trump told RFK “I would love you to do something – and I think it would be so good for you and so big for you, we’re gonna win”. The possible effort from Trump to onboard RFK could signal that Trump himself sees RFK as a potential spoiler. As a note, all of this will depend on whether RFK can even get on the ballot in all 50 states, a prospect that seems possible with his support but difficult with pending legal challenges from both Republicans and Democrats. 


Should RFK arrive on the ballot in November with his current level of support, his impact could be massive. In 2016, Jill Stein of the left-environmentalist Green Party shaved enough ballots from Clinton to swing Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to Trump. These key swing states would have won Clinton the election. However, Jill Stein pushed the boundary to the point where Trump won in all three states by less than a single percentage point. 


RFK’s impact will not be measured by executive orders, inauguration speeches, or through policy. Instead, his impact could be potentially measured by tipping the scales of this election. Come November 5th, one-half of this country might wake up to bad news, courtesy of the Kennedy campaign.


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3)  A Nice Stroll Through the Park…Fire; The Park Fire AmandaLesly Miranda


In Northern California, the Park Fire has become the state's largest wildfire of the year, engulfing over 360,000 acres across Butte, Plumas, Shasta, and Tehama counties. The blaze, which began on July 24, has grown rapidly due to dense vegetation and strong winds, and is currently only 12% contained. Thousands of firefighters are battling the inferno, which has forced widespread evacuations and destroyed numerous structures. Hotter-than-average temperatures and abundant dry fuels have contributed to the fire's explosive growth, making this a particularly severe wildfire season.

As the Park Fire rages on and continues to spread, residents of some California towns are being forced to relive the terrifying events of various other fires, such as the Camp Fire from 2018, California’s deadliest wildfire to date. Evacuations, property loss, and the constant threat of danger evoke a sense of déjà vu, bringing back the fear and anxiety experienced during previous fire seasons. The sight of smoke-filled skies and the smell of burning vegetation trigger emotional responses, reminding communities of the devastation caused by past infernos and the long, arduous recovery process that follows. Officials are urging residents to stay ready for anything, but at the moment, nobody truly knows what “anything” is.


To contain the Park Fire, thousands of firefighters have been deployed, utilizing a combination of ground and aerial resources. Firefighters are constructing firebreaks, conducting controlled burns, and using water and retardant drops from helicopters and airplanes to slow the fire's spread. Additional support has been brought in from neighboring states, and emergency shelters have been established for displaced residents. Authorities are coordinating closely with local agencies to manage evacuations and ensure the safety of affected communities, while also working to restore power and other essential services in the fire-ravaged areas.


The government response to the Park Fire has been swift and comprehensive. Governor Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency, mobilizing state resources to assist with firefighting efforts and providing aid to affected residents. The California National Guard has been activated to support evacuation and firefighting operations. Federal assistance has also been requested, with FEMA providing financial aid and resources to bolster the state's efforts. Coordination between state and local agencies is ongoing to ensure a unified and effective response to the crisis.


People across the nation now wait with an urge to see how this wildfire is going to play out, while other wildfires continue to sprout across the West and cause more damage to the nation. Authorities have tied the wildfire to a suspected arson case, causing theories that the wildfire is going to continue to get worse and spread. Unfortunately for residents and firefighters alike, it shows no sign of slowing down. The only thing left to do is wait.


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4)  100 Days Until Doomsday Ruhaan Sood


In less than 100 days, the fate of the entire nation will change. We all expected a rematch of the 2020 election, but that all changed just over a week ago when incumbent President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. All in all, now is more a time than ever to start waking up and actually thinking: “What’s going to happen on November 5th”?


What’s going to happen with the Democrats?


In just 2 weeks, incumbent nominee Kamala Harris, after assuming power with the stepdown of Joe Biden, will be officially nominated as the Democratic nominee for the 2024 election. At the same time, Harris will also announce her vice-presidential pick. Harris would use this moment to rally the Democratic base, emphasizing her new role and vision for the future. Her acceptance speech and subsequent campaign activities would be geared toward unifying the party and solidifying support among various factions, including progressives, moderates, and independents. Kamala Harris's background as the first female, African American, and South Asian Vice President in U.S. history adds a historic dimension to her candidacy. This diversity can help mobilize voters who are motivated by representation and inclusivity. Pew Research concludes that voters who are immigrants, college educated, or support overall progressive change will be more drawn to her campaign.



What’s going to happen with the Republicans?


Just earlier this month, the Republican National Convention concluded with some of the biggest highs and lows in history. You obviously aren't a stranger to the recent assassination attempt on former president Donald Trump, an attempt which motivates some to call the shooting a grace from God himself. Trump also announced J.D Vance as his running mate. The Ohio senator had been relatively low on the list of potential picks, yet he prevailed. With nominations and business already decided, Trump and Vance are diving head-first into months of media campaigns, interviews, and social distribution. In 2020, Trump only lost by a mere 7 million votes, all of which are up for grabs. Trump with his commonly thought “Make America Great Again'' policy has revolutionized red states into a “new era of Republican thinking”.


What should I be doing right now?


You as the voter (even if you aren’t old enough) are critical in every single way. Stay informed (hopefully with The Red Folder) and continue to seek real information on what you can do. If you can vote, make sure you are registered. Most states require registration at least a month before election day. Check usa.gov to see when you can and if you can! Every single vote makes a difference.


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