The Red Folder

Archived From July 15, 2024.

Key stories for the week, brought to you by Lindsey Zhao and the Red Folder team.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

Publishing since January 2024.

International Stories

4 key international stories for the week:

1) The Middle East’s Next War: Israel and Hezbollah Justin Palazzolo

Hezbollah and Israel have always had a tenuous relationship. After all, tensions manifested when Hezbollah arrested a literal bird, stating that they had captured an “Israeli spy eagle”. However, recent times have seen avian tensions replaced by airstrikes and missiles flying in the air instead of mere birds.

Hezbollah, an Iranian-sponsored militant group, has garnered extensive political and military control within Lebanon, becoming designated as a “state within a state”. They pose themselves as a formidable armed group due to leverage within Lebanon, as well as alliances with both Iran and Syria.

However, the opportunity for Hezbollah to use their military might look increasingly likely. On June 12, hundreds of Hezbollah’s missiles struck northern Israel as a response to persistent Israeli airstrikes in Southern Lebanon that have killed 362 Hezbollah operatives since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip.

These airstrikes come as a response to Hezbollah’s missile strikes that began on Oct. 8th in claimed solidarity with the Palestinian people who have suffered mass death since the outset Hamas-Israel War at the hands of Israel’s army. Since Oct.7th Israel has launched 6,142 attacks in southern Lebanon in comparison to 1,258 attacks from Hezbollah into Israel resulting in the deaths of 21 Israelis and 543 Lebanese.

This low-level conflict over the border is now at risk of spilling into all-out war following the escalation that has occurred this summer. Prime Minister Netanyahu threatened a “very strong response” to Hezbollah’s strikes and Benny Gantz, a lawmaker, and former war cabinet minister, claimed Israel could “plunge Lebanon into the dark” and dismantle “Hezbollah’s power in days”. Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah stated that the organization would “not sit on its hands” if Hamas was “weakened or undermined”. With Israeli forces pushing Hamas out of Rafah, and with missile exchanges increasing over the summer capacity for escalation remains threatening.

After Hezbollah kidnapped Israeli soldiers in 2006 a war broke out, lasting 34 days this caused the deaths of less than 2,000 people. In 2024, a new war between Hezbollah and Israel would be far more brutal and could be worse than even the current one in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah can field an estimated 40,000-50,000 trained fighters within Lebanon. Nasrallah claims he has 100,000 fighters at the ready on top of the heads of many regional armed groups who have pledged to fight. Unlike Hamas or most guerilla groups, Hezbollah is regimented, disciplined, and experienced after fighting in the Syrian civil war alongside pro-Assad forces and playing an integral role in wiping out rebel forces in central Syria.

Hezbollah also has 150,000 missiles in reserve, giving them the capacity to overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome by launching 4,000-5,000 missiles a day. In 2006, they launched only 117 missiles a day. Against Hezbollah, more akin to a regular army than a militant group, and rearmed with sophisticated Iranian weaponry worth a minimum of 200 million USD a year post-2006; Gantz’s bluster to dismantle Hezbollah’s power in “days” is very unrealistic.

Hezbollah also holds a strategic advantage, unlike the Gaza Strip, Lebanon is surrounded by friendly states like Syria and Iraq that are part of the Iranian axis. In the case of a conflict, Hezbollah could replace its losses with Iranian missiles, manpower, and weaponry with a direct land route.

A war with Hezbollah from Israel would also necessitate an invasion of Lebanon which would guarantee war with the state of Lebanon and its military on top of Hezbollah’s forces. Israel would have to contend with this threat while having significant forces tied down in Gaza by Hamas (a smaller militant group Israel has not defeated in 9 months of fighting) ensuring that victory is impossible for Israel and defeat may be a distinct possibility for the Middle East’s strongest military.

The escalation scenario does not end with the Levant, as Iran considers Hezbollah its premier regional ally and power projection source. Tehran was willing to strike Israel directly over its war with Hamas, thus Iran would likely be drawn into a Hezbollah-Israel war, something Iran’s leadership has already been itching to do. An Iranian intervention could easily draw in the United States on the side of Israel which would expand casualties and geopolitical reverberations exponentially. Either way, Israel cannot win a new war against Hezbollah, and the losers will be the millions of dead across the Middle East.

Read More Here:

2) China’s Military: Formidable Foe, or Gentle Giant? Anthony Babu

Winnie the Pooh is known for being gentle, caring, and looking like Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping is known for being dictatorial, brash, and most of all, looking like Winnie the Pooh. And while Winnie the Pooh might only be able to assemble an army of forest animals to fight for him, Xi Jinping has a lot more at the ready.

Over the past years, China has significantly built their military. Xi raised the country’s defense budget by 7.2% and raised the largest army in the world, several hundreds of thousands of soldiers beyond the United States. Most notably, the Chinese military has directed its seemingly endless funds towards military innovation, utilizing AI and quantum computing to lead the US in key sectors and infiltrate the cyber networks of other countries.

Most concerningly, China’s military has not been left undeployed. Instead, President Xi has used it to further his territorial ambitions. Most obviously, China has used their military to intimidate Taiwan. After Taiwan elected President Lai Ching-Te, China deployed dozens of warplanes and ships to surround the island as a show of strength, conducting military drills dangerously close to the island. China has also repeatedly threatened a naval blockade of Taiwan which could cost the international economy five trillion dollars.

Xi has also exercised his military in the South China Sea. With 5.3 trillion dollars in trade passing through the maritime region annually, military confrontations between Chinese and Filipino have skyrocketed as naval tensions mount in the region.

Xi hasn’t just used the navy, either. Chinese soldiers clashed with Indian soldiers at disputed Himalayan boundaries at least twice in 2022, not just killing 20 Indian soldiers but also contributing to climbing tensions between the two Asian hegemons.

However, with all the action the Chinese military has seen, many wonder how it would actually fare in a military conflict. China still lags behind the US in critical sectors, including communications, intelligence, and undersea weapons systems. The US has spent tens of trillions of dollars more on defense than China since the end of the Cold War, meaning that even if China’s military is larger, it is likely not as capable as the United States.

However, even in sheer numbers, China still lags behind. The US has double the warships of China. The US has four times as many aircraft carriers and critical helicopters. The US has twenty times as many nuclear weapons as China. In quantity and quality, China is still lagging behind.

Another important front of China’s military readiness is economic strength. China’s economy has been marked by erratic behavior in recent months, with the housing market stagnating and consumer spending continuing to fall. A looming population crisis is exacerbating this trend, with China’s population halving itself by 2100, diminishing the power of the Chinese labor force.

Meanwhile, the United States and its allies are gaining economic fortitude. Between 2019 and 2023, the US led the Western world in economic growth in spite of the effects of the COVID pandemic. This economic strength would help power the United States past China in the event of a military conflict.

With all of this in mind, one must ask: would China ever actually invade another country?

Well, many have speculated that China will be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. However, even if China was capable of doing so, they must remember that imperialism in East Asia means more than just East Asian countries fighting back. Joe Biden has promised to militarily protect the Philippines and Taiwan from China, and Donald Trump might do the same if elected. Most credible wargames show the US and its allies defeating China in an amphibious East Asian conflict, but at a high cost to all parties’ people, economies, and societies. Such a conflict would not just imperil global stability, but the survival of the human race by dramatically raising the risk of nuclear miscalculation.

Ultimately, while one can certainly ponder the ramifications and strength of the growing Chinese military, one can likely rest assured that we are safe: for now.

Read More Here:

3) Iran’s Moderate Pivot? Lindsey Zhao

In a theocratic society where ultimate authority lies with the Supreme Leader, Iran’s ‘democratically-elected’ President has never held much influence. Nevertheless, Iran recently elected a politically moderate candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, to hold the position after the previous president, religious hard-liner Ebrahim Raisi, died in a helicopter crash in May, raising hopes that Iran could be pivoting towards change.

In Iran, the president is the top elected official and second in rank only to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While he’s responsible for the day-to-day affairs of government and has major influence in domestic policy and foreign affairs, his powers are limited when it comes to security and, of course, actually carrying out his plans. Not only can his powers be checked by Parliament, which often contains close allies of the Supreme Leader, but all his major ministers/commanders answer directly to the Supreme Leader. Furthermore, in order to run for president in the first place, you must be approved and vetted by the Guardian Council, a powerful body of clerics and jurists. Unsurprisingly, this council also mingles closely with the Supreme Leader.

All that to say, usually the president has only limited power. Nevertheless, he can also be a figurehead for change, like when reformist President Mohammad Khatami pushed to moderate the country’s stances on social issues during his terms.

President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian, a 69 year old Azeri-Kurdish man who has served in politics for decades, including as health minister for former President Khatami. He beat his main opposition, far-right conservative politician Saeed Jalili, with 53% of the vote after neither candidate gained a majority in the first round of voting and the election went to a runoff.

Turnout in Iran’s recent presidential election was extremely low, with less than 40% of the population casting a vote in the initial round of voting (turnout was more than 10 points higher in the runoff). This was largely due to reformist and leftist parties calling for a boycott of the election to protest the lack of fair and free elections. And indeed, presidential elections in Iran are notoriously rigged, with each candidate effectively being approved- or not- by the Supreme Leader through the aforementioned Guardian Council vetting process.

Some experts argue that Pezeshkian is nothing more than a wolf in sheep’s clothing, and that his election is simply a distraction campaign, where Khamenei will not allow any meaningful change in the country’s politics to occur. Others argue, however, that his election means Iran’s administration is becoming more forgiving to moderate politics and might be more open to future change. Maybe.

So, what exactly are Pezeshkian’s policies? First, his ethnic identity gave him broad appeal to the ethnic minorities in Iran that make up over a third of the general population; many of Iran’s ethnic minorities, including the Kurds, have been violently repressed by Iran’s government in the past.

Second, he’s previously stood up for women’s rights in Iran- a major point of contention in the country’s domestic politics that led to massive protests in the country in 2022 after the death of Mahsa Amini while she was in the custody of Iran’s so-called morality police. He condemned her death and his against using force to uphold the mandatory hijab rule in the country.

Third, he is pro-international cooperation. While Iran has closed itself off from agreements like the Iran Nuclear Deal, diplomatic relations with many Western countries, and even international banks, Dr. Pezeshkian has called for ‘constructive relations’ with the West and to revive the nuclear deal to lift sanctions that the US has placed on the country. These sanctions have caused massive suffering to the civilian population, because they’ve led to trillions of dollars in losses to Iran’s economy.

However, whether Pezeshkian can actually bring any of his policies into reality remains to be seen. He gave himself room to maneuver once in office by straddling the delicate line between religious conservatism, praising Ayatollah Khamenei, and pushing a more moderate political agenda. They might be willing to let him get away with some of his less controversial policies, but when it comes to Iran’s nuclear deal and its potential restoration, the result will depend more on the outcome of the US election instead of Iran’s.

Trump left the Iran nuclear deal for a reason, and if he wins in November, he’s extremely unlikely to restore it. On the other hand, the most progress on Iran nuclear policy with the US has been made during a Democratic president’s second term.

The future of another nuclear deal also lies in what we previously covered two articles above- the outbreak of a war between Israel and Hezbollah, a major Iran proxy organization. If war were to break out, Iran would be seen as responsible, because they are a massive funder to Hezbollah- that would set back any progress with the US, a major Israeli ally.

Pezeshkian’s election as Iran’s president is nothing to sneeze at- it’s very impressive he managed to even pass the rigorous anti-moderate screening process in the first place. But unfortunately for people across Iran hoping for change, that change may or may not manifest.