The Red Folder

Archived from July 1, 2024.

Key stories for the week, brought to you by Lindsey Zhao and the Red Folder team.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

Publishing since January 2024.

Flour Throwers and Election Holders: A Special Report on the French Election

by Rowan Seipp and Rohan Dash

The French love to riot almost as much as they love to make pastries. And today, it seems they like to combine the two a lot. For example, Emmanuel Macron has been pelted with everything from eggs to flour to cherry tomatoes, showing that the French love a good protest. Over the last few years, they have protested to the point that President Macron was forced to call a snap election in late June. This is an election that has several divisive factors, not just for France, but for the rest of Europe. This election gives two choices to the French electorate: either vote right and go toward Nationalism or vote left and continue in a globalized France. With two ideologically opposed factions running in a highly competitive and divisive election, this article considers what each political party believes and what the French electorate thinks before finally offering a prediction for the race.

How Elections Work

In France, elections are very straightforward. With over 47 million voters, the nation is one of the world's largest democracies. France is divided into 577 constituency contests, one for each seat in the National Assembly, the lower house of the French Parliament (the upper house, the Senate, does not have elections this year). For the presidency contenders must, among other things, be nominated by at least 500 elected representatives (e.g. mayors, deputies). France then has a universal popular vote to decide the candidates. Runoffs are held until one candidate gets over 50% of the vote. Interestingly enough, the electoral process in France is quite fair, including a limit on the amount of fundraising allowed and no advertising on TV, although there may be official debates being hosted on television.

The Status Quo

The current leader of the French Republic is Emmanuel Macron. Fun fact: Macron married his secondary school teacher, as they first met when he was only 15 and she was more than two decades older than him. Despite his very strange marriage circumstances, Macron has had mixed results as President. Macron was elected in 2017 beating far-right opponent Marine Le Pen. When he ran in 2017, he had a unique appeal: he was young, centrist, and everything the far right wasn't. However, his electoral victory was not particularly inspiring, as data from the Guardian tells us turnout was the lowest in more than 40 years. Almost one-third of voters chose neither Macron nor Le Pen, with 12 million abstaining and 4.2 million spoiling ballot papers, demonstrating a lack of interest in the government. Macron’s first term was challenging because although his party won a majority, Macron himself was fraught with challenges ranging from COVID-19 to the Yellow Vest Protests. Eventually, he came into 2022 struggling after a wave of fresh protests and a renewed campaign by Le Pen. On the flip side, the same year France saw Le Pen improve in polling for every single constituency in France, forcing a runoff. However, Macron stood his ground and won with about 59% of the vote. Unfortunately, from 2022 to 2024 Macron has presided over a very tumultuous tenure. In 2022 the war in Ukraine began, and Macron has changed his mind often. In the beginning, Macron insisted that “Moscow should not be humiliated” but around the end of last year, he changed his tune while speaking in Prague on March 5, Macron declared that Europeans can’t be “cowards' when countering Moscow. He even went as far as promising to send troops to Ukraine. Additionally, the economy has been suffering in the eyes of French citizens - the cost of living being on the rise leading to necessities like heat and gas being nearly completely unaffordable. Currently, inflation in the country is at about 2.6%, an amount above the 1.8% target the EU has set. However, perhaps Macaron’s biggest failing since 2017 was the pension protests that destroyed the country. In 2023 the government raised the retirement age from 62 to 64. The proposed legislation was met with mass protests which shut down the nation's transportation and economy for months. Macron acted to end the protests by using one of the French Presidencies' most controversial powers Article 49.3, which allows the government to force passage of a law without a vote unless the parliament passes a motion of no confidence. Macron’s policy regarding the pension scandal caused a wave of protests. After a repeal attempt failed, voters were left with a bitter taste in their mouths coming into a divisive election.

The rise and popularity of Jordan Bardella

But if anything, the current election seems like a high school class president election. Why? Turns out that social media users demonstrated their willingness to vote for Jordan Bardella, a 28-year-old politician with a high school diploma, for the highest position in French politics due to his looks. Well, at least for some voters, that is. Bardellas caught the nation by storm due to his promise to “restore faith in France and its greatness”. Specifically, he’s the leader of the National Rally (RN), a far-right party challenging the centrists and leftists across the government and nation. One of the biggest issues that Bardella and his party has been focusing on is the issue of migration: where they specifically plan to enact an emergency law, abolishing France’s law known as “Droit du sol”, which removes citizenship for children born in France to two foreign parents. Additionally, when it comes to their migration crisis, Bardella is hardline on removing medical aid funds for undocumented immigrants. But it’s not just migration that he’s changing the status quo on. For example, when it comes to aid for Ukraine, he wants to cut down, including removing the supply of long-range missiles and other weapons, in addition to red lines on aid to provide that he’s yet to be specific on. But perhaps the largest concern that will sway the opinions of voters is the economy. For example, the National Rally plans to help the agriculture industry, that’s grown substantially to be a contributor to the France GDP. On the National Rally’s website, they’ve identified economic costs harming farmers, such as production costs rising, with land and property becoming harder to acquire. Putting them as a key priority has led to the RN’s popularity amongst rural France. When it comes to the cost of living, once again, as per the Guardian, it’s been a major issue that caused anger amongst voters to grow. That’s why Bardella and the National Rally are gaining so much popularity: they plan to lower the Value Added Tax from 20% to 5.5% on electricity and fuel and reach out to the European Union for additional assistance. For the average French citizen, Macron has failed during his two terms, and Bardella seems to be a brilliant new choice.

Macron’s Unpopularity and Predictions

Now, it is quite normal to be disliked as a French President. Emmanuel Macron's predecessor François Hollande saw his approval rating fall to below 20% during his term as president. French voters dislike Macron over a few reasons, namely his arrogance and his unabashed use of state force. Notably during one TV interview he was asked if he understood why people felt he had displayed an attitude of contempt for them, he lectured the presenter on the definition of “contempt”. Macron’s perceived attitude toward the French public has made him into an easily dislikable person.

The two authors of this piece came to a staggering conclusion. Macron is going to lose and lose badly. In an election that is projected to have one of the highest voter turnouts in French history, it is clear who the voters have picked and why they have picked them. With key issues such as inflation and foreign policy hanging over their heads. With data from the Economist, Politico, and Le Monde we project that Macron’s alliance Ensemble will win anything from 70-80 seats. We also project that the Bardella’s National Rally will win 280-300 seats. The rest of the 577 will be taken up by smaller right-leaning political parties. We finally project that Macron will continue as president with Bardella as his Prime Minister and the National Assembly will be controlled by the far right.

In 2024 France stands at the crossroads of extremism. Down one path is Macron and globalization, and down the other is Bardella and nationalism. While Macron’s seat as president will probably go unchallenged it is a clear certainty that the assembly will shift to the far right. Please come back to this article after the election concludes to see how accurate these predictions are.