The Red Folder

Archived from August 19, 2024. 

Key stories for the week, brought to you by Lindsey Zhao and the Red Folder team.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

Publishing since January 2024. 

International Stories

4 key international stories for the week:

1) Japan’s LDP Takes the L Daniel Song


The Japanese flag is made up of a red circle, symbolizing the sun, against a white background. Due to Japan’s geographical position, it is one of the first countries to see the sun rise every day. Unfortunately, things have been a little less sunny for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). On August 14th, 2024, Kishida announced that he would be stepping down as LDP party leader and would not lead the party in the next general election. His exit means that the LDP will elect its new leader this September, who will become the next Prime Minister of Japan and lead the party in the October 2025 general election.


The Liberal Democratic Party is a center-right party with various factions ranging from moderate to far-right. It is one of the most successful political parties in modern history, having been in power uninterrupted since 1955, except for two periods in 1993 to 1994 and 2009 to 2012. Unlike many authoritarian countries, however, Japan’s elections are free and fair. Despite this seemingly strong mandate from Japanese voters, both Kishida and the LDP are highly unpopular. Support for Kishia’s government hit an all-time low of 15.5% this July, with 58.4% disapproving. Even worse, the LDP itself is only polling at 25%, its worst result since regaining power in 2012. As a result, the LDP lost 3 special elections in April 2024 to the center-left Constitutional Democratic Party. Especially shocking is the fact that these seats were once considered safe LDP seats. Even so, they went to the opposition.


The LDP’s problems can broadly be split into two areas: internal and external. Internally, one major reason for the LDP’s struggles is the corruption scandals within its ranks. An investigation alleges that top LDP ministers and legislators got personal kickbacks in exchange for raising campaign cash at political rallies. Then, the politicians funneled millions of dollars from campaign coffers into secret slush funds without the mandated legal reporting and due process. One of the driving forces behind the LDP’s struggles is factional politics. In this respect, the LDP is a victim of its own success, as various factions jockey for power knowing that the winner will become Prime Minister given the LDP’s dominance in the National Diet, the legislative body of Japan. Factions allocate funds to rank-and-file LDP legislatures in exchange for support to become party leader, and faction leaders hand out powerful posts within the Prime Ministerial Cabinet in return. To address the issues of corruption, Kishida personally dissolved his own faction within the LDP for failing to report hundreds of thousands in campaign contributions. However, 2 out of 6 factions have refused to dissolve, and rank-and-file members continue to rely on factions as a way to gain more power and advance their careers. Unless the factions’ influence over political positions and Cabinet appointments is reduced, they will continue to flourish. 


Externally, the LDP is blamed by Japanese voters for the weak economy. Ohe problem of holding power continuously since 2012 is that voters can easily pin the blame on the LDP for major crises gripping Japan, regardless of whether LDP policies are actually to blame. This year, Japan’s economy fell to 4th place globally as Germany surpassed it in GDP. One of the leading causes of this economic stagnation is weak consumer spending. Amid struggles with record inflation, consumer sentiment has not yet recovered to pre-COVID levels. Real GDP fell 0.5% in the first quarter of 2024 and domestic household spending fell in three of the last four quarters. As Dr. Jeff Kingston, an Asian Studies professor at Temple University, put it, “People vote on pocketbook issues.” To regain the trust of voters, the LDP must boost the economy and raise consumer confidence.


Despite weakness for the LDP, the opposition has struggled to gain power because it is politically disorganized and continuously failed to present a credible alternative to LDP rule. The lower body of the National Diet, the House of Representatives, is more powerful than the upper house, and is responsible for selecting the Prime Minister. Members of the House of Representatives are elected using a combination of first past the post and proportional representation. However, while the opposition has relied on proportional representation to win some seats, it has never organized into a unified bloc to challenge the LDP. As a result, the LDP’s hold on power is more secure than at first glance. Regardless, the LDP faces a serious test of leadership at a time of new challenges for the party itself and Japan as a country. Voters’ patience is wearing thin, and the LDP needs to earn back the trust of Japanese citizens ahead of next year’s elections.



Read more here:

2) Ukrainian Troops in Russian Land? Rowan Seipp 

For the first time since the Nazi regime launched the infamous Operation Barbarossa in 1943, Russia has been invaded. It is a momentous occasion. Just a few days ago, it became apparent that the Ukrainian army had made significant headway into the Kursk Oblast. Rolling in on German tanks and armed with American guns, Ukrainian soldiers have upended the war. But what does the Kursk incursion mean for both sides, and how does the new front change the course of the war?

In early August, the situation in Ukraine indicated significant struggles in the ongoing war, particularly with notable incursions in the eastern regions. Putin's strategy of employing brute force and patience seemed to be yielding results. At that time, Putin was anticipating the depletion of Ukrainian resources, and was awaiting the outcome of the US Presidential election. This approach appeared effective, as Russia inflicted substantial damage on Ukrainian infrastructure and manpower. Russia was on the verge of securing a major victory and reshaping the course of the war. However, the recent incursion into the Kursk Oblast this month has undone all of Putin's progress. For the Russian people, this incursion has shattered Putin's narrative about the war, specifically his assertion that the conflict in Ukraine was successful in preventing an invasion of Russia. This miscalculation by Vladimir Putin’s generals has put the Russian army in a drastic situation. With the Russian narrative exposed, this author predicts that Putin will fall back on his tried-and-tested maneuver of firing senior military commanders.

This is the greatest Ukrainian victory since the retaking of Kharkiv in 2023. For the bedraggled Ukrainian army to take large swaths of Russian land this quickly is a testament to the fact that the Ukrainians are not done yet. Ukraine has made similar incursions into Russian territory over the last two years. However, those have been nothing more than simple cross-border raids. This, however, is an unprecedented excursion into the Russian heartland. Ukraine’s top military commander claims his forces have advanced into 1,000 square kilometers of the Kursk region. It’s up to the reader to decide if this is fact or fiction, but the truth remains that Ukraine has made significant advancements into Russian territory. The real shocker is what exactly the Ukrainians have seized: the Ukrainian military claims it controls 74 settlements in the Kursk region. Russian officials say more than 100,000 people have been evacuated, mostly from Kursk. If these numbers are verified, it means that a few things are undeniably true. First, Ukraine has just scored the most serious win of the war. Second, Russia is running scared.

The war in Ukraine has undeniably reached a new phase. With Ukraine finally invading Russian territory and Russia seemingly unable to find a response, this author questions Russia's ability to continuously fight this war, especially as it draws closer to home. Only time will tell what effects the August incursion will have on the conflict, but one thing is certain: it is far better to negotiate under more favorable conditions, and whichever side can secure that will go a long way toward winning this war.

Read more here:

3) ICC: Useless or Incompetent? Rowan Seipp 

When someone commits murder in the United States, they are held accountable. Whether in state or federal courts, one of the pillars of democracy has always been crime and punishment. If crime and punishment are so integral to a functioning society, it is shocking that the most powerful individuals are almost entirely exempt from punishment for their heinous crimes. However, in an astonishing moment of self-reflection, the international community sought to address this issue. In the mid-20th century, the Rome Statute established the International Criminal Court (ICC). This followed a series of international tribunals, most famously the Nuremberg Trials, which, for the first time, enforced an international standard on military personnel and heads of state. The ICC was a permanent replacement, and was intended to bring some of the most notorious international actors to justice. Throughout the last century, it has done significant work. The ICC’s actions after the Rwandan genocide were crucial in bringing the perpetrators of one of the most gruesome crimes against humanity to justice. However, this year has exposed the ICC's critical failings. This article examines two examples of the ICC’s ineffectiveness: Israel and Venezuela.

Since 1947, Israel has been engaged in conflict with the Palestinian people. On October 7, the conflict escalated dramatically. Following a gruesome attack on Israel perpetrated by Hamas, Israel responded with a ground invasion and an aerial bombing campaign of the Gaza Strip. The death toll is expected to exceed 186,000, making it one of the worst conflicts the world has seen in the last decade. With such horrific destruction, it is clear that both Hamas and Israel are among the worst human rights abusers the world has ever seen. Therefore, it is the ICC’s responsibility to address the crimes of both organizations. The ICC plans to issue arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders, but Israel plans to delay these proceedings in court. However, the real problem is that even if the ICC issues these warrants, Israel and Hamas have already shown that they do not care about international law and are more than willing to openly defy it.

Nicolas Maduro is your favorite dictator’s favorite dictator. Venezuela’s authoritarian regime has a history of outright ignoring international law. Whether it is announcing plans to annex part of Guyana or launching brutal crackdowns on demonstrators, Maduro has long demonstrated that he will do whatever it takes to do what he wants. In 2017, Maduro brutally suppressed anti-government demonstrations, which amounted to a violation of international law. However, bureaucracy has meant that it has taken until 2024 to take action against him. It was only this month that the ICC even began proceedings to charge Maduro. A seven-year delay provides no justice for anyone. This is emblematic of the ICC’s failings. Even if someone were to heed their actions, they cannot move forward with actual measures for years. (I recommend reading our special report for more information on Maduro.)

With the ICC seemingly ineffective at achieving much, it is time for a change. This author recommends updating the Rome Statute to enable nations to enforce international law.

Read more here: 

   4) Solved: The True Case of The Nord Stream Pipeline  Boyana Nikolova

Just as with any good mystery novel, the most interesting crimes come undone the slowest. Everything, from the initial hopelessness in solving the case to the suspense leading to the villain’s reveal, takes time before eventually, the truth is unraveled and the world stops holding its breath. This time, however, it’s not a mystery novel that’s making the world anxious. Rather, it’s a globally-scaled crime and its long overdue plot twist.

The question of who blew up the Nord Stream pipeline, a pair of crucial pipelines once linking Russian gas to the markets of Europe, is believed to have been resolved. Now, the international community is left wondering what to do with the alleged “perpetrator.” 

Background

Commissioned in 2011 and fully completed a year later, the Nord Stream pipeline was built with a simple intention: to connect Russian natural gas with a reliable network of European buyers. Soon, the pipeline became the most direct passage from Russia’s reserves to European consumers and following its development, the trade of natural gas between Russia and Europe massively expanded, reaching new heights. Of course, any elation about it was short-lived. The Russo-Ukrainian War, brought to life in 2022, put a halting end to friendliness with Russia and painstakingly, European nations detached themselves from the trade relationship they once enjoyed.

But what did this new rivalry mean for the pipeline? In the eyes of Russian officials, it meant weaponization. Almost immediately, the Nord Stream was quickly adapted into Russia’s war strategy. Russian energy giant Gazprom halted operations on one of the pipelines, blocking natural gas from reaching Germany and hence, the rest of the continent. Panic inevitably ensued. Europe was tasked with replacing its previous main energy source and its energy market became tattered. By the time officials had a vision for the continent’s future power-wise, another development had taken place and it complicated everything: the Nord Stream pipeline had been utterly obliterated, blown up from within.

Despite not being in use, it was a fact: transnational energy infrastructure had been attacked and destroyed. The security of both European nations and Russia was being underscored and any remaining trade relationship between the two was only further clefted due to the symbolism behind such an attack. Until a conspirator or convincing scapegoat could be found, Russia and the rest of Europe would have to keep being wary of one another as partners, endangering any hopes of peace and normalcy following the war. But why hadn’t the perpetrators been found by then and what was the world doing instead?

An utter lack of evidence made it much easier for countries to point fingers while official investigators struggled with the forensic work and diplomats mulled over plans for future cooperation. Ukraine, Russia, and the US were all countries accused of the crime, each feigning that they had nothing to do with the incident in response. A game of whodunnit was underway and the clues were only so many in number. Investigations, independently led by Sweden, Denmark, and Germany (each personally affected by the explosion,) progressed and a slew of theories were tested. 

Of the ideas that emerged from investigators, several contradicted each other and the international community landed itself into a dead end. Many western media outlets tacitly painted Russia as the orchestrator during this time, claiming the pipeline’s destruction was likely a piece of its grander war strategy. This week, however, the mainstream narrative  vastly changed and the media is still divided on what conclusions to draw.

So who did it?

Nobody's entirely sure, but certain media outlets seem to have reached answers of their own. Earlier this week, the Wall Street Journal and several high-profile German publications released reports claiming that the true villain behind the pipeline explosions was Ukraine. As the reports cited, Ukraine’s top officials, including the President Volodymyr Zelensky, had given approval to a team of highly-skilled divers to execute the risky operation. Key word: risky. The CIA had allegedly made an effort to oppose the expedition, but even with President Zelensky having a change of heart, then-top general Valerii Zaluzhnyi had demanded the divers proceed anyway. Soon enough, the damage had been done. The reports went on to reference Poland and the US as supplementing the eventual disaster, willingly providing diplomatic approval and logistics support to the team of diver-perpetrators.

The credibility of the reports is still being disputed, but the information, now taking flight within the American and German media, has undoubtedly influenced the mainstream. The details on the underwater explosion are murky (literally) and yet, the recent publication has turned into bait for desperate-enough readers. Various small but unreliable details are “confirming” these readers’ suspicions.

For example, prosecutors and police in Germany are currently investigating a senior Ukrainian official as a potential suspect in the blast. This Wednesday, German police even arrested a shady Ukrainian diver, now suspected to be part of the team of divers circulating in the reports. While there isn’t a way to confirm or reject the existence of a Ukrainian diving team intentionally being behind the Nord Stream accident, much of the public isn’t convinced. Of course, their new attitudes aren't without consequence.

Polls find that American support for arming Ukraine is waning, and fast. Worse, pro-Russia conspiracy theorists are rapidly gaining traction abroad. Does one single set of reports cement these trends in the US? Certainly not. But they will no doubt contribute to them. 

If the reports turn out to be true, Ukraine’s international support circle will have a major choice to make: either  press solidarity with a country guilty of a terrorist attack or cleave their relationship on the spot. This alone could put a definitive end to the Russo-Ukrainian war, as imported ammunition and supplies to Ukraine could reach fatal levels in mere days. In contrast, if the reports are proven to be a hoax, the war will continue following its current path. 

Put simply, everything is on the line right now. Journalistic integrity could, for the first time ever, be a deciding factor in a full-blown war. The issue hinges on where readers will draw the line between news and conspiracy.

Lamentably for mystery novel enjoyers, this mystery doesn’t yet have a conclusive answer. Instead, we'll have to wait and find out. Just maybe, a clue could come to us along the way, steering us in the right direction.

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The Equality in Forensics News Brief is brought to you by Lindsey Zhao and the News Brief Team:

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