The Red Folder

Archived from April 29, 2024.

Key stories for the week, brought to you by Lindsey Zhao & the Red Folder team.

Reading for the sake of reading sucks. Telling yourself to read to win a round is nice but ineffective. This condensed news brief helps you understand current domestic and international issues, analyze the news, and gives you opportunities to read more.

International Stories

3 key international stories for the week:

1) Ecuador’s raid on Mexico: A diplomatic spat Roshan Shivnani

Daniel Noboa, Ecuador's current leader, stated his “tough on crime approach” is what was needed to restore order to the country. However, that sentiment may have led to something very different, as seen in Ecuador's choice to raid the Mexican Embassy.

Surprisingly enough, this was done to capture an Ecuadorian, the former vice president Jorge Glas, who Ecuador's prosecutors have accused of being involved with “gangs” that are responsible for drugs and crime across the country. Although anti-crime measures are popular amongst Ecuadorians who've seen their nation placed in turmoil due to crime, the raid doesn’t sit so well with Mexico and the rest of the international community. As such, this article will be dedicated to breaking down the domestic and international response to this risky move.

Placed between Columbia and Peru, Ecuador is quite literally surrounded by drugs from the rest of the continent. That has led to an increase in gangs that push up nearly every crime metric. To date, Ecuador’s homicide rate has soared by 500 percent since a historic low in 2016, and it now stands at 45 murders per 100,000 citizens. Gangs even ended up killing a presidential candidate due to their “anti-mafia” policy.; they have also targeted judges, prosecutors, journalists, and ordinary citizens. As a result, a domestic sentiment to crack down on crime has been incredibly popular with Ecuadoreans voting in favor of allowing the military to patrol their streets as part of a referendum on bolstering security in the country. Ultimately it was then that very sentiment which encouraged Noboa to start the raid, especially as his polling numbers slipped from recent highs.

Outside his nation, he has faced a very different reaction. To start, Mexico itself decided to sever ties with Ecuador given the fact it received no prior notice before the raid on their territory. However, they took it even further when Mexico's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alicia Barcena, announced that Mexico would take the case to the International Court of Justice. To add fuel to the fire, left-leaning Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Venezuela, The Organization of American States (OAS), the UN, and almost every country on the continent followed suit in condemning the Ecuadorian police operation and the violation of international law.

Ultimately, the incident is now being viewed as a case study across the international pushback a nation will receive for violating international norms. Although Daniel Noboa believed the raid would only aid his cause, the retaliation from Mexico and other countries has made it so that nations like Ecuador wouldn't be so hasty to violate international law.

Read more here:

2) Pendulum of War: Changing Tides in Ukraine Rowan Seipp

For most people, growing up meant playing RISK. The game of warcraft and strategy involved maneuvering your troops worldwide and crushing your little sister's armies. For millennia, warcraft has closely mirrored what is seen on a RISK board, with sweeping advancement and vast armies colliding on open plains. However, in the last few years, war has profoundly changed from vast fields to wars of individual feet and buildings.

Nowhere is the change seen more dramatically than in the nation of Ukraine. Just over two years ago Russia began a sweeping invasion of the sovereign state of Ukraine. This began Europe's most comprehensive war since the Second World War. Momentum has changed like a pendulum with early attacks going in the favor of the Russians ending in the siege of Mariupol. After the end of the siege, the pendulum swung decisively, with the Ukrainians seizing control of the war and launching counterattacks. The overmatched and underfunded Ukrainians could hold the powerful Russian steamroller. Unfortunately, the pendulum has swung once again. With a vast Russian offensive picking up steam the fear that Ukraine could fall is becoming a very real one. However, with the House passing a new aid bill, Ukraine could hold.

The war has profoundly changed in the last few months. After the Ukrainian offensive stalled, the Russians seized the advantage. The latest frontline mapping from DeepState shows the center of Ocheretyne, including the railway station, in Russian hands, with Ukraine also losing ground in the neighboring village of Novobakhmutivka, immediately to the south. Russia's immediate gains can be traced to a loss in funding for Ukraine.

With the US and the EU stopping funding and general resistance to increased funding, Ukraine has not been able to hold its advantage. Marjorie Taylor Greene exemplifies this, recently announcing that “under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine”, "Our country comes first", and more recently, a tweet that said, “We must stop letting Zelensky demand money & weapons from US taxpayers while he is trying to drag us into WW3. No more money to Ukraine.”

However, it appears that Marjorie Taylor Green has a fairly shallow analysis of war funding.

Ukraine needs our funding to survive the coming onslaught. Only nine months ago, American intelligence officials were telling the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee that it would take a decade — or more — for Moscow to recover from the staggering losses inflicted by Ukrainian defenders. The German Council on Foreign Relations refined that estimate last fall, warning that the window would be more like five to eight years. This has been driven by a mobilization of their defense industrial base. This rapid mobilization means that coupled with military victories Russia seems nearing an inevitable victory.

However, US funding stands a chance to change that. President Biden has ushered in a new funding bill. The bill funds Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan. It's the Ukraine funding that provides a slim window of opportunity to the bedraggled defense forces. The bill allows for over 1 billion dollars in aid to go to Ukraine. Specifically, the bill sends funding toward artillery and armored vehicles. With this funding, Ukraine now stands a real chance at winning.

Unlike RISK, military strategy relies heavily on funding. The reality of this war is that American funding is the only reason Ukraine can even win the war. Without spending bills like this one, the Ukrainian war effort will fall apart quickly.

Read more here:

3) Netanyahu’s Big Decision Sasha Morel

Far-right allies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are exerting pressure on him to oppose a potential new ceasefire in Gaza, which could destabilize his government if he withdraws support for an offensive against Hamas in Rafah.

Hamas representatives were scheduled to meet mediators in Cairo on Monday as efforts intensify to reach a ceasefire agreement ahead of a threatened Israeli incursion into Rafah, a region near the Egyptian border where approximately a million Palestinians displaced by Israel's military actions elsewhere in Gaza have sought refuge.

Israel claims that four remaining battalions of the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas are entrenched in Rafah following over six months of conflict triggered by Hamas' cross-border attack on October 7. Israel intends to launch an assault on these battalions after evacuating civilians, but if a ceasefire is reached, the attack plans will be put on hold in favor of a period of sustained calm, during which a few dozen Hamas hostages will be released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich urged Netanyahu not to abandon plans for a ground offensive against Hamas in Rafah, despite international pressure to reconsider due to the potential for high civilian casualties and humanitarian crises. Smotrich warned Netanyahu that accepting a ceasefire would be seen as a humiliating defeat, and failure to eliminate Hamas could jeopardize the government's legitimacy.

Subsequently, Police Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir reiterated Smotrich's stance, emphasizing that an irresponsible deal would lead to the dissolution of the government. Netanyahu's office and his Likud party have not responded to these statements, while former Defense Minister Benny Gantz, a centrist who joined Netanyahu's emergency war cabinet, emphasized the importance of prioritizing the release of hostages over an assault on Rafah. Gantz stated that rejecting a responsible deal would undermine the government's legitimacy, especially given the security failure on October 7 and the public demand for the return of hostages.

Despite Netanyahu's control over 64 seats in parliament with the support of Smotrich and Ben-Gvir's parties, their ability to dissolve the government poses a significant risk to his leadership. Successive polls indicate a decline in Netanyahu's popularity following the October 7 attack, and his coalition faces the prospect of defeat in upcoming elections. Additionally, Netanyahu's ongoing corruption trial and mounting protests over his handling of the war further compound his challenges.

The conflict has devastated much of Gaza, displacing most of its 2.3 million inhabitants, while Hamas remains undefeated. Tens of thousands of Israelis are still displaced due to Hamas' actions in October, and ongoing rocket fire from Hezbollah adds to the security concerns. Meanwhile, around 130 hostages remain in Gaza, sparking protests against Netanyahu's perceived prioritization of political survival over their fate.